Stock Market Outlook for Thu Feb 11 2021 – Sideways, Choppy But Bias Is Up

Wednesday saw another choppy day of trading but also another intraday new high as the S&P reached 3931.50.

The close saw the index back just above the 3900 level at 3909 for a loss of a single point.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Feb 10 2021 

The S&P moved slipped by just a point on Wednesday but the candlestick at the close was neutral for a second straight day. Normally we should expect a bit more bearishness but after two neutral candlesticks, often the day ends a bit higher.

The Upper Bollinger Band is continuing to rise while the Lower Bollinger Band is falling lower. This is bullish for further advances in the index.

The 21 day moving average is rising and is above the 3800 valuation. The 200, 100 and 50 day moving averages are still climbing with the 100 day moving average now above the 3600 valuation and the important 200 day moving average at 3450. These are strong indicators the market will continue to push to new highs this week.

Thursday could see more sideways action but with a bias higher, as the chart remains bullish.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Feb 10 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Feb 5 2021. On Wed Feb 10 2021 the up signal was stronger.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is near overbought but has turned sideways indicating not a lot of upside is expected on Thursday.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak down signal for Thursday and is very overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is moving higher which normally means we should see prices change more on Thursday.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3900 is resistance

3850 is support

3800 is support. The 21 day moving average is just above 3800 at present.

3750 is support and where the 50 day moving average is at present.

3700 is light support

3600 is strong support and where the 100 day moving average is at present

3550 is support

3500 is strong support

3450 is support and where the 200 day moving average is at present. A drop this low would represent an 11% correction.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow -Thu Feb 11 2021 

For Thursday the markets will try to open a bit higher but then dip back to the 3900 level again. It will be another choppy day of trading.

This time though we could see the S&P try to push higher for a positive close. There will be dips during the day but they remain opportunities to setup trades.

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