Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 5 2024 – Overbought But Bias Up

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Wednesday was a choppy day of trading but investors used every dip to snatch up shares and push stocks still higher. This was the best one day since November 7.

The NASDAQ closed up 254 points which was also the best day since Nov 7. The index ended at 19735, another closing high.

Volume was again interesting. The S&P traded 4.2 billion shares with 67% of all volume moving lower, not higher. 48% of all stocks were falling.

On the NASDAQ 8.1 billion shares traded hands with 73% of that volume advancing. With investors moving back into tech stocks once again on Wednesday, 55% of al stocks on the index were rising.

The Fed minutes at 2:00 on Wednesday were a non-event with nothing new discussed. Roughly 70% of investors still think the Fed will cut interest rate sin December by a quarter of a point.

Let review the closing technical signals from Wed Dec 4 2024 to see what to expect for Thu Dec 5 2024.

Thank You – Black Friday Special

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Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Dec 3 2024

The index pushed to its highest level of the year on Wednesday. This is bullish.

The closing candlestick has a small shadow (tail end) which indicates very overbought and strong possibility of dips ahead of tomorrow’s unemployment report.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 5968. This is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5859. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5719 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5470 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day and rising sharply. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving lower. The chance of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze is building. This is currently bearish.

The S&P chart is bullish for Thursday but one again it is signaling that the index is extremely overbought and stocks are likely to face more selling and dips.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Dec 4 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 5 2024 

The technical indicators are signaling many stocks are extremely overbought and ready to pullback. If there are dips today or Friday, stay cautious as this may not be a “buy the dip” trade unless weakness is broad.

The morning has a big chance of a dip. We could see the same in the mid-afternoon. However most signals remain healthily bullish and if there is weakness it may only last a couple of days. Today we should see a higher close ahead of the November unemployment report due out tomorrow at 8:30.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI came in higher than estimated at 49.7

10:00 ISM manufacturing came in higher than estimated at 48.4%

10:00 Construction spending rose to 0.4% from 0.1% prior

Tuesday:

10:00 Job openings were above estimates at 7.7 million

Anytime – Auto sales beat estimated coming in at 16.5 million.

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP employment was a lot lower at 146,000 which many investors use as a reason for the Fed to cut rates in December

9:45 S&P final services PMI was lower than estimated, coming in at 56.1

10:00 ISM services was a lot lower than expected, coming in at 52.1

10:00 Factory orders were better than estimated coming in at 0.2%

2:00 Fed Beige Book

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims is expected to rise to 215,000

8:30 Trade deficit is expected to rise to -74.8 billion from -$84.4 billion