Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wed Dec 27 2023 volumes on New York rose just to 2.7 billion but on the NASDAQ volumes rose to 7.6 billion as investors were busy adjusting positions and getting set for 2024. Both indexes had flat days with small gains. The S&P closed up 7 points to 4781 and the NASDAQ closed up 24 points to 15099.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Dec 27 2023 to see what to expect for Thu Dec 28 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Dec 27 2023
The index closed above all major moving averages and just below the Upper Bollinger Band. The SPX index made a new 52 week intraday high today of 4785 and is within easy striking distance of the all-time intraday high of 4818.62 made Jan 4 2022. The all-time closing high was 4796.56 on Jan 3 2022.
The 21 day moving average is rising further, which is also bullish. It has been in a steady rise without even a dip since Nov 22, a full month as of last Friday (Dec 22).
The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday but also signals a dip is likely on Thursday.
The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day and still climbing which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average.
The S&P chart is bullish heading into Thursday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Dec 27 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Wed Dec 27 2023 the up signal lost strength. It is now down to just 2.80 and a further slip could signal trouble to start 2024.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is positive. It is still overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is entering overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. It is signaling not much change expected.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4815 is resistance |
| 4800 is resistance |
| 4780 is resistance |
| 4750 is resistance |
| 4720 is resistance |
| 4700 is resistance |
| 4675 is support |
| 4650 is support |
| 4625 is support |
| 4600 is support |
| 4590 is support |
| 4575 is light support |
| 4565 is light support |
| 4550 is support |
| 4535 is support |
| 4520 is support |
| 4500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 28 2023
The Moving Average Convergence / Divergence technical indicator is almost ready to issue a down signal, as of the close on Wednesday. Other technical signals are still pointing higher for Thursday for the index.
Thursday has a good chance to see some deeper dips and even a slightly negative close could happen but the outlook remains bullish for stocks into the final two trading days. The technical indicators may be advising that the start of January will see some weakness. For now though Thursday and Friday have a good chance to close positive.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Major economic events this week few with most on Thursday with retail and whole inventories and pending home sales. Bond markets are closed early on Friday.
Tuesday:
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index came in at 5% indicating some inflationary pressure on prices
Wednesday:
No events
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims is expected to rise to 215,000
8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods is expected at -89.6 Billion
8:30 Advanced retail inventories is estimated to be unchanged at -0.1%
8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories is estimated to be unchanged at -0.4%
10:00 Pending home sales is estimated to rise to 1%