Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wed Dec 17 2025 the day started with some promise of a possible bounce but then selling erupted and the day was spent watching equities leave more value.
The S&P closed down 78 points to 6721. Volume was 5.3 billion, rising 200 million over Tuesday’s trading. 53% of all stocks were falling which is lower than yesterday when 60% of all stocks were falling.
The NASDAQ fell 418 points to close at 22,693. Volume rose to 9 billion, with 66% of all stocks on the index falling, which was more than any day this week so far.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Wed Dec 17 2025 to see what we should expect for Thu Dec 18 2025 and whether a bounce is likely.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Dec 17 2025
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band, 21 day moving average and 50 day moving average. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish but also signals stocks are becoming oversold and a bounce should be expected.
The 21 day moving average rose on Wednesday and closed at 6780. The 21 day is continuing to try to climb away from the 50 day moving average. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 6765 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6613 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6367 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is starting to turn higher. While this is bearish it could also be signaling an attempt to bounce. The Upper Bollinger Band is flat which is bearish.
By the close on Wednesday the SPX chart is far more bearish than bullish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Dec 17 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative which is bearish.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Dec 16 2025. The down signal was confirmed on Wed Dec 17 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and into oversold readings.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is falling signaling a lower day sfor Thursday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6925 is resistance |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is resistance |
| 6850 is resistance |
| 6800 is resistance |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is support |
| 6650 is support |
| 6625 is support |
| 6600 is support |
| 6590 is support |
| 6570 is support |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 18 2025
For Thursday earnings from Micron Technology Stock (MU) may have enough momentum in the stock to help the tech sector try to bounce or at the outside, to slow the descent.
Overall though any bounce at this point does not look like there will be enough strength to break the downtrend.
At the close on Wednesday, the MACD technical indicator confirmed Tuesday’s down signal. This technical indicator has been fairly accurate for the past few years.
As well, on Thursday morning we get the latest inflation readings as the CPI numbers are released at 8:30. This could weigh on stocks if the numbers come in a lot higher than estimated.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire state manufacturing survey was much weaker than estimated, coming in at -3.9 versus 10.0 expected and 18.7 prior.
10:00 Home builder confidence index rose slightly to 39 from 38.
Tuesday:
8:30 Non-farm payroll reports for Nov beat estimated at 64,000 but were below September’s jobs numbers.
8:30 Unemployment rate is at 4.6%, which is above estimates.
8:30 October retail sales were below estimated at 0.0% which is basically flat.
Wednesday:
No reports are released.
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to dip to 225,000 from 236,000 last week.
8:30 Consumer price index is estimated unchanged at 0.3% for November
8:30 CPI year-over-year is estimated to rise to 3.1% from 3.0% prior
8:30 Core CPI is estimated at 0.3% up from 0.2% prior
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is estimated at 3.0% unchanged
8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is estimated to rise to 3.6 from -1.7 prior