Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 12 2024 – Bullish Bounce

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Wednesday saw investors react with a bullish bounce off the CPI numbers that were in-line with expectations. Most investors now feel that the 2.7% CPI number will low the Fed to cut interest rates again this month.

The SPX ended the day up 49 points closing at 6084. Trading volume rose slightly 200 million shares to 4.4 billion but 51% of all volume was to the downside and only 52% of stocks were rising.

The NASDAQ had a stronger day where 6.9 billion shares were traded with 59% of all volume to the upside and 51% of all stocks rising. The index closed at 20,035, a new closing high.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Wed Dec 11 2024 to see what to expect for Thu Dec 12 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Dec 11 2024

The index bounced and rose to 6084. The technical indicators point to the trading action as a bounce.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 5999. The move higher for the 21 day has stalled. This is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5892. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5751 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5499 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling below the 50 day. This is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. At present the outlook has shifted to bearish for the Bollinger Bands.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Thursday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Dec 11 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Dec 12 2024 

For Thursday, investors will find out if Wednesday’s move higher was just a bounce before there is more profit-taking. The rally did not change the MACD down signal. It remains unconfirmed but still points to lower for the index.

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) numbers were in-line with expectations. Investors expect the Fed will announce an interest cut on December 18. The could kick start a new rally into the end of the year and boost the so-called *Santa Claus Rally”.

For Thursday investors have to build on Wednesday’s bounce. The day should start lower but then we will see how much conviction investors have to pick up more stocks.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 Wholesale inventories are expected to rise to 0.2% from -0.2% prior.

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index rose sharply to 101.7

8:30 US Productivity for the 3rd quarter was unchanged at 2.2%

8:30 Unit labor costs fell to 0.8% for the third quarter. This was unexpected.

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index for Nov rose as expected to 0.3%

8:30 CPI year-over-year came in as expected at 2.7%

8:30 Core Consumer Price Index was unchanged at 0.3%

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year came in unchanged at 3.3%

2:00 Monthly US Federal Budget rose to $366.88 billion

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated at 220,000

8:30 Producer Price Index is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%

8:30 Core PPI is estimated to be slightly lower at 0.2%