Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wednesday the rally slowed ahead of Thursday’s PCE numbers and Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers.
Volumes also dropped off but the indexes still managed further gains.
The S&P rose 17 points to close at 4514. This places the index back above all the major moving averages and leaves the index just 2% below its all-time high of 4607..
The NASDAQ ended the day up 75 points to end the day at 14,019, back above the 14,000 valuation.
Let’s review the SPX index from Wednesday to see what to expect for Thu Aug 31 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Aug 30 2023
The index closed above the all major moving averages. The 21 day continued to move lower below the 50 day for a down signal but this could change within a couple of days.
The closing candlestick on Wednesday is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish and the 50 day is turned sideways.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher and above the 100 day which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving lower which signals a potential Bollinger Bands Squeeze perhaps as early as today.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Aug 30 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Aug 29 2023. On Wed Aug 30 2023 it confirmed the up signal.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising, positive and starting to enter overbought readings.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4525 is resistance |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4485 is resistance |
| 4470 is support |
| 4450 is support |
| 4435 is support |
| 4420 is support |
| 4400 is support |
| 4390 is support |
| 4370 is support |
| 4350 is support |
| 4340 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4310 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4290 is support |
| 4275 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Aug 31 2023
With the move higher on Wednesday the MACD up signal was confirmed. All the other technical indicators are also rising and two of them are entering overbought readings. These are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Slow Stochastic. We should see the index build on the strength of the last three days but don’t be surprised if there are dips on Thursday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This week’s major events are now CPI on Thursday. Friday we get the non-farm payroll numbers for August.
Thursday:
9:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to be 235,000, up slightly from 230,000
8:30 Personal income is expected to be 0.3%
8:30 Personal spending is estimated at 0.7%
8:30 PCE index
8:30 Core PCE Index is expected to be 0.2% unchanged
8:30 PCE and Core PCE year-over-year is expected at 4.2% up slightly from 4.1%
9:45 Chicago Business Barometer is expected to be 44.3, up slightly from last month’s 42.8