Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wednesday many stocks stayed under selling pressure, especially those stocks with high momentum such as Palantir Tech Stock (PLTR), NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Intel Stock (INTC) and others but the selling was more muted. Despite this, the MACD technical indicator confirmed Tuesday’s down signal.
The S&P closed down 15 points to 6395 on 4.5 billion shares traded. 47% of the trading volume was being traded lower while 50% of stocks were falling by the close.
The NASDAQ closed down 142 points to 21,172 on 8 billion shares traded. 56% of volume was being traded lower and 52% of stocks were falling by the close.
The FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon brought nothing new to the interest rate outlook and most analysts continue to believe the Fed will have no choice buy to lower rates a quarter point in September.
Target earnings were good but the outlook was poor and with a change in CEO announced, the stock tumbled 6.3% for a drop of $6.67 by the close. This weighed on investors although the XRT – SPDR® S&P Retail ETF lost just half a percent.
On Wednesday I took sick in the morning and was unable to post any articles. Feeling better Wednesday evening after a visit to my doctor I am posting some articles for Thursday. I did have some trades filled on Wednesday and will post them today.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Wed Aug 20 2025 to see what they advise for Thu Aug 21 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Aug 20 2025
The index closed just above the 21 day moving average and below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday but slipped below the 21 day intraday on Wednesday. It recovered and left behind along shadow. This often advises investors to watch for a bounce today which could be fairly large.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6379 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6254 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6093 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5916 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower but did not cross below the 50 day. It is showing signs of moving sideways or starting to rise. This is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. The index looks set to break below the 21 day moving average once more, on Thursday.
The SPX chart is more bearish than bullish for Thursday with declining bullish signals.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Aug 20 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Aug 19 2025. On Wed Aug 20 2025 the down signal was confirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising signaling a bounce is likely.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is still overbought. It could dip lower today.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling a lower close for Thursday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Aug 21 2025
For Thursday more retail giants report their latest quarterly earnings. The big name is Walmart Stock (WMT) who reports earnings today before the open. An earnings miss will be negative for the market today. A beat could assist in setting up the index for an intraday bounce.
The MACD technical indicator issued a strong down signal at the close on Wednesday which could weigh on stocks today and Friday.
Tomorrow we get the Fed Chair speech from Jackson Hole in the afternoon. Nothing new is expected but analysts will be watching to see what the tone of the speech is.
For Thursday the open could see a bounce attempt by the close still looks poor and flat to negative.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Home Builder Confidence was lower than estimated, coming in at 32
Tuesday:
8:30 Housing starts were well beyond estimates at 1.43 million
8:30 Building Permits were lower than estimates at 1.35 million
Wednesday:
2:00 Minutes of July FOMC meeting are not expected to move the markets
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise slightly to 225,000 from 224,000 prior
8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is estimated to fall to 7.0 from 15.9 prior
9:45 S&P flash services PMI is estimated to dip to 55 from 55.7 prior
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI is estimated to dip to 49.5 from 49.8 prior
10:00 Existing home sales are estimated to fall to 3.91 million from 3.93 million prior
10:00 Leading economic indicators are estimated to rise to -0.1% from -0.3% prior