Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wed Aug 13 2025 stocks continued their advance with both the S&P and NASDAQ closing at new record setting highs.
Intraday the morning started with a jump to 6480 on good volume. That though proved to be the high as the majority of the day saw the index slip lower until by the close it was up 21 points to 6466. There were 207 new highs and just 12 new lows. Obviously a strong bull market.
The NASDAQ rose just 31 points by the close to end the day at 21,713. Intraday though, the NASDAQ reached 21803 before sellers pressured the index to move lower into the close. Despite this volume was 9 billion shares with 426 new 52 week highs and just 80 new lows.
On Wednesday the market was all about investor belief in the likelihood of a Fed rate cut as early as September and more to follow into year end.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Wed Aug 13 2025 to see what they predict for Thu Aug 14 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Aug 13 2025
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and above the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Thursday but with two long shadows, the day will be choppy with dips likely.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6346 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6208 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6058 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5889 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is starting to end and stocks are poised to move higher out of the squeeze.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Aug 13 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Jul 15. On Wed Aug 13 2025 the signal changed to an unconfirmed up signal.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling a higher close for Thursday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Aug 14 2025
On Wednesday at the close, the MACD technical indicator issued an unconfirmed up signal. We should see the signal confirmed today by the close.
News overnight out of the UK is positive as it showed a 0.3% gain for UK GDP. This shows the economy may be slowing, but it is still outgrowing the tariffs and that is important for equities.
Overall the day lwill be choppy as the closing candlestick from Wednesday points out. The end of the day though will see stocks still higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB Optimism index rose to 100.3, well above estimates
8:30 Consumer Price Index for July is fell to 0.2% from 0.3% prior
8:30 CPI year-over-year stayed at 2.7% unchanged
8:30 Core CPI rose as estimated to 0.3%
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year rose to 3.1% as estimated, above 2.9% prior
Wednesday:
No economic reports but 3 Fed Presidents speak throughout the day. We may hear more about rate cuts which will support stocks.
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to rise to 229,000 from 226,000 prior
8:30 Producer Price Index for July is expected to rise to 0.2%
8:30 Core PPI is estimated to rise to 0.3% from 0.0%
8:30 PPI year-over-year is estimated to remain unchanged at 2.3%
Core PPI year-over-year is estimated to remain unchanged at 2.5%