Stock Market Outlook for Thu Aug 12 2021 – Choppy Bias Lower

Wednesday saw stocks rally against the backdrop of lower than expected inflation. The S&P made another new intraday and closing high.

The index rose 10 points to end the day at 4447.

The technical indicators saw some changes on Wednesday by the close. Let’s review the indicators to see what we should expect for Thursday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Aug 11 2021 

On Wednesday the S&P closed almost flat for a fourth day. This left behind a bearish candlestick for Thursday.

The Lower Bollinger Band is continuing to fall away from the 50 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger Band is continuing to rise. This is a bullish signal for the index.

As well, all the major moving averages are still climbing which is bullish. For Thursday only the candlestick is bearish in the SPX chart.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Aug 10 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Aug 2. On Wed Aug 11 2021 the down signal stayed neutral.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling for a second day.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is still overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4450 is resistance

4400 is resistance

4370 is support

4350 is light support

4300 is light support

4290 is light support

4270 is light support

4250 is good support

4225 is light support

4200 is good support

4175 is light support

4150 is light support

4100 is good support

4070 is light support

4050 is light support

4000 is good support

3900 is support

3850 is support

3800 is support

3750 is good support

3700 is light support

3680 is light support

3600 is strong support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Aug 12 2021 

For Thursday Aug 12, the SPX technical indicators are mixed which continues to suggest a sideways, choppy day of trading.

The closing candlestick is a concern and it often signals a down day to follow.

Overall the outlook remains choppy, trending sideways but with a lower close.

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