Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wednesday Fed Chair Powell gave investors a strong hint that a rate cut was on the table for September. Markets moved higher on the back of his comments, particularly his news conference.
The SPX closed up 85 points at 5522 in a strong rally that included 62% of all stocks.
The NASDAQ rose 452 p points closing at 17,599 with 59% of all stocks rallying.
Wednesday was a strong day for stocks but it was Fed induced. Let review the closing technical indicators from Wed Jul 31 2024 to see what the signals advise to expect on Thu Aug 1 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jul 31 2024
The index reached the 21 day moving average back backed off. It still closed above the 100 day moving average which is bullish.
The closing candlestick has a long shadow which indicates weakness to start the day on Thursday but a higher close.
The 21 day moving average is turning lower which is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is slowing its climb which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 5062 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5302 but its rise is starting to slow.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which signals a a higher close is likely.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish and is still signaling a chance for a positive close again on Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jul 31 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising, negative and no longer oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thur July 18. On Wed Jul 31 2024 the down signal was lost strength and the histogram shows clearly the down signal is weakening.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising but negative. It is no longer oversold.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is not oversold.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling Thursday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5675 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5520 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5490 is resistance |
| 5475 is resistance |
| 5465 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5375 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5310 is support |
| 5300 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Aug 1 2024
Feb comments on Wednesday rekindled the rally in stocks as the dovish outlook with a mention of a rate cut to start probably by September, enough to bring stocks back to life.
The technical indicators are showing that the morning will be weaker but the close will be higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No events scheduled.
Tuesday:
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index fell to 6.8% as expected
10:00 Consumer Confidence came in stronger at 100.3
10:00 Job openings rose to 8.18 million
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment report was expected to show 150,000 openings but showed just 122,000
10:00 Pending home sales were expected to rise to 1% but jumped to 4.8%
2:00 FOMC interest rate decision kept rates unchanged
2:30 Fed Chair Powell’s news conference boosted stocks
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to be unchanged at 235,000
8:30 Productivity is expected to come in at 1.8%
9:45 Manufacturing PMI for July is expected to slip to 49.5
10:00 ISM manufacturing for July is expected to slip to 48.9%
10:00 Construction spending for June is expected to rise to 0.2%