Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wednesday investors spent the day wandering through those stocks that were beaten down in Tuesday’s sell-off. By the close the S&P still managed to hang onto a positive close.
The SPX closed up 5 points to 5211.
The NASDAQ rose 37 points to close at 16,277.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators on Wed Apr 3 2024 to see what to expect for Thu Apr 4 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Apr 3 2024
The index closed well below the Upper Bollinger Band and just above the 21 day moving average. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is signaling a second bounce may be tried on Thursday but dips are likely.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5181 on the SPX.
The 50 day moving average is rising and at 5070, which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4685 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is down at the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is starting to turn sideways as well. This is bearish.
The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish for Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Apr 3 2024 – Chart courtesy TradingView
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Apr 2. On Wed Apr 3 2024 the down signal was confirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and negative.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising indicating Thursday has a chance for a higher close.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is resistance |
| 5200 is resistance |
| 5190 is resistance |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is support |
| 5075 is support |
| 5050 is support |
| 5025 is support |
| 5000 is light support |
| 4990 is light support |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
| 4925 is support |
| 4915 is support |
| 4900 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 4 2024
The technical indicators are mixed but the majority are advising that Thursday could see some further weakness but a higher close should be possible. Of particular concern is the MACD confirmed down signal.
Many investors will be on the sidelines today as they wait for tomorrow’s non-farm payroll numbers.
For Tuesday watch for a choppy day with plenty of dips. The day should still end positive.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The major event this week is the March non-farm payroll numbers due out on Friday at 8:30.
Monday:
9:45 S&P USA manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 52.5 but was 51.9
10:00 Consumer spending is expected to rise to 0.7% but fell to -0.3%
10:00 ISM manufacturing is expected to rise to 48.1% from 47.8% prior but rose to 50.3%
Tuesday:
10:00 Factory orders are expected to rise to 1% but rose to 1.4%
10:00 Job openings are expected to slip slightly to 8.8 million from 8.9 million prior. It came in at 8.8 million.
Auto sales are expected at any time during the day.
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment is expected at 155,000 but came in at 184,000.
9:45 S&P services PMI was unchanged at 51.7
10:00 ISM services climbed slightly to 52.7%
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to be 213,000
8:30 Trade balance is estimated at -$67.7 nillion