Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 29 2021 – Potential Fed Bounce To Start

On Wednesday the S&P traded sideways until the Fed comments pushed the index above 4200 fort the first time.

The index slid lower by the close and ended down 3 points at 4183. Intraday though the S&P reached 4201.53.

Thursday though could be all about the Fed.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Apr 28 2021 

The Upper Bollinger Band is continuing to move sideways which is bearish and the Lower Bollinger Band is still moving higher and reached the 50 day moving average on Wednesday. If this trend continues we will see a new Bollinger Bands Squeeze this week.

The closing candlestick on Wednesday is again bearish for Thursday.

The 21 day moving average is climbing higher, further away from the 50 day moving average which is bullish.

The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing higher.

Overall the S&P chart is bullish but there are bearish signals continuing to warn investors.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Apr 28 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and rising.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday March 29 2021. On Wednesday another negative signal was not strong enough to confirm the next move will be down.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for a third day.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4200 is resistance

4150 is light support

4100 is light support

4070 is very light support

4050 is light support

4000 is Support

3900 is support and the 50 day is just above this at 3933.

3850 is support

3800 is support and the 100 day is just above this level.

3750 is good support

3700 is light support

3680 is light support

3600 is strong support and the 200 day is just above this level.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Apr 29 2021 

Earnings continue to be quite good but on Thursday Fed comments on keeping the focus on next to zero interest rates should be enough to push the index beyond 4200.

As long as the Fed sticks with its plan of accommodative money supply with a zero interest rate policy, the rally should push into May and could mean the major correction many analysts are predicting for May, might not happen.

Thursday will see the SPX end the day higher.

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