Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wed Apr 23 2025 investors kept the hope of a trade deal with China alive and continued to buy stocks. The indexes closed off their highs but it was still a strong day.
The SPX rose 88 points to close at 5375. Volume rose to 5.4 billion with 71% of that volume trading to the upside. 74% of all stocks rose.
The NASDAQ rose 407 points to close at 16708 for a second straight day of over 400 points gained. Volume rose to 8.9 billion with 81% of trades to the upside and 72% of all stocks rallying.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Wed Apr 23 2025to see what they predict for Thu Apr 24 2025 .
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Apr 23 2025
The index closed below the 200 day moving average again but did manage to break above the 21 day before closing at it.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday as there is a long candlestick which often points to a down day.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5403. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7. It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5658 which is bearish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tue April 15. which issues a 4th down signal on the SPX. It is now at the 200 day moving average. It could fall below it today which would be another strong down signal..
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5693 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5643 which is bearish.
All the moving averages are continuing their decline with four down signals so far in the sell-off.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling. The Upper Bollinger Band is also falling which is bearish. Note the Upper Bollinger Band is turning sharply lower. This could signal a downturn coming shortly.
For Thursday the SPX chart is bearish and pointing to a lower close on Thursday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Apr 23 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Apr 22 2025. On Wed Apr 23 2025 the up signal was confirmed.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising..
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal isfalling and signaling a flat to lower close today. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5400 is resistance |
| 5359 is resistance |
| 5300 is resistance |
| 5230 is support |
| 5000 is support |
| 4770 is support |
| 4680 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4365 is support |
| 4150 is support |
| 4000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 24 2025
For Thursday the closing candlestick warns we will see a choppy day of trading today and a chance for a lower close. This will not be the end of the rally but signals are advising that the uptrend is nearing completion and investors should stay cautious.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Leading economic indicators were lower than estimated at -0.7% from -0.3% prior
Tuesday:
No economic reports
Wednesday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI fell more than expected to 51,4
9:45 S&P US manufacturing PMI fell less than anticipated at 50.7
10:00 New homes sales for March were far higher than expected at 724,000 well above estimates of 685,000.
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book notes are not expected to impact stock market direction today
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are estimated to be 220,000 up slightly from 215,000 prior
8:30 Durable goods orders are estimated to rise to 1.6% from 0.6^ prior
10:00 Existing home sales are expected to reach 4.12 million, down from 52.6 million prior