Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 22 2021 – Morning Weakness Possible But Higher Close

On Wednesday markets rose high and recovered much of the losses from the prior two days of trading.

The S&P rose 38 points and ended the day at 4173, back above 4170.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Apr 21 2021 

The Upper Bollinger Band is back climbing which is bullish while the Lower Bollinger Band is still moving higher above the 100 day which is bearish.

The closing candlestick on Wednesday is bullish for Thursday.

The 21 day moving average is climbing higher, further away from the 50 day moving average which is bullish.

The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing higher.

Overall the S&P chart is bullish with just one warning signal.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Apr 21 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and rising again.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday March 29 2021. On Wednesday the up signal was still weaker.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is showing the index as still overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and no longer overbought.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4150 is light support

4100 is light support

4070 is very light support

4050 is light support

4000 is Support

3900 is support and the 50 day is just above this at 3933.

3850 is support

3800 is support and the 100 day is just above this level.

3750 is good support

3700 is light support

3680 is light support

3600 is strong support and the 200 day is just above this level.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Apr 22 2021 

For Thursday the technical indicators are mixed at the start of trading. The index closed at the high for the day which almost always will be followed by a morning dip.

There is however enough bullish signals to indicate the index should bounce back from any morning selling to push higher.

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