Prior Trading Day Summary
On Wed Apr 1 2026 stocks bounced further but then drifted as the day wore on and fell back below the 200 day moving average by the close.
The SPX added 46 points to close at 6575. Volume fell by 800 million shares to 5.7 billion with 53% of the volume being traded higher. By the close 64% of all stocks on the SPX were rising. The rally stalled early afternoon on Wednesday and sellers returned.
The NASDAQ moved up 250 points to close at 21,841. Volume was 9 billion shares traded with 63% of all stocks being traded higher.
Both indexes were still unable to retake their respective 200 day moving average but the SPX moved above it and then fell back below it before the close which is bearish.
Lets review the SPX closing technical indicators from Wed Apr 1 2026 to see if the rally will restart on Thursday or end the day lower.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Apr 1 2026
The index closed below the 21, 50, 100 and 200 period moving averages. This is bearish. The SPX pushed above the 200 day moving average but then sold off and closed below it. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Thursday. A long shadow was left on the closing candlestick which signals a move lower is expected for Thursday.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 6632. It is below the 50 day and 100 day moving averages. These are strong down signals.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 6789. This is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 6734. This is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 6586. This is bearish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish.
The SPX chart is bearish after just two days of a rally. The NASDAQ index also closed below its 200 day moving average on Wednesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Apr 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative. It moved higher on Wednesday and should move higher today.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Mar 2 2026. On Wed Apr 1 2026 the down signal was almost gone.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising but turning sideways which is bearish.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising. It is signaling today will end higher.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising and no longer oversold. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6585 is resistance |
| 6550 is resistance |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6475 is resistance |
| 6450 is support |
| 6400 is support |
| 6375 is support |
| 6350 is support |
| 6300 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 2 2026
Technical Signals on Wednesday afternoon, point to the rally as ended for Thursday. Volumes fell back on Wednesday afternoon and stocks fell easily back below the 200 day moving average. Both the SPX and NASDAQ indexes left behind closing candlesticks that advise the day will close lower.
As well Wednesday evening President Trump addressed the nation to update on the Iran conflict. Overall the result seemed more negative than positive and stock futures that had been positive, turned negative shortly after his speech. With the Iran conflict now believed to last at least two or three more weeks, investors seemed to take this as negative. Stocks look positioned to give up a large amount on the rally, today.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No new reports are expected for Monday
Tuesday:
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index for Jan is estimated at 1.3%
9:45 Chicago Business Barometer for March is estimated at 55.1
10:00 Job Openings are expected to stay steady at 6.9 million
10:00 Consumer confidence for March is estimated at 87.5
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP jobs soared to 62,000 well above estimates of 39,000.
8:30 Retail sales for Feb came in higher than anticipated at 0.6%.
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI for March came in at 52.3
10:00 ISM manufacturing rose to 52.7%
10:00 Business inventories for Jan were delayed and came in at -1.1
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected at 212,000
8:30 Trade Deficit is estimated at -62.0 billion