Wednesday saw stocks fail to fall as far as they had on Tuesday. That brought in buyers who picked away at stocks on the various dips throughout the day. Into the final hour, stocks rose higher and almost broke through 2890. The S&P closed the day up 10 points to 2888 in a tight range bound day of trading.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Apr 10 2019
The S&P closed above the 21 day moving average again on Wednesday but this time it left behind a bullish candlestick for Thursday.
The Bollinger Bands Squeeze has ended with the index moving higher.
Note how the Lower Bollinger Band, which was turning back up, today turned back down. This could signal a move higher for the index.
All major moving averages are back where they belong and the 50 day and 100 day are both moving away from the 200 day.
The S&P had been warning of a down day but there are no similar warnings tonight. The chart below looks bullish.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Apr 10 2019
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is positive and and rising.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tuesday April 2. It lost some strength on Wednesday.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and back rising.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for a second day and is very overbought.
- Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is moving sideways, indicating not much change is expected in prices.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
2900 is strong resistance
2860 is light support
2830 is light support
2800 is strong support
2795 is light support
2745 to 2750 is light support
2725 is light support
2700 is light support
2675 is light support
2650 is support
2625 is light support
2600 is support.
There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.
The 2500 level is support.
The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.
There is good support at 2425.
Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.
2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction of 641 points as a drop to this level would be 21% and just 5% away from a full bear market signal ending the bull market from 2009.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Apr 11 2019
The S&P will have a choppy day again on Thursday but not as choppy a we saw on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A dip back down to perhaps the 2885 level may occur, but overall the indicators are pointing to a higher close for Thu Apr 11 2019.
The index should stay in a fairly tight range ahead of earnings from the banks which starts Friday morning. Many investors will be concerned about the results and that should keep stocks fairly flat for much of the day.
Overall though, the S&P is holding a bullish bias and the index should break through 2900 shortly.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
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