Prior Trading Day Summary:
Wednesday saw a massive relief rally after news of a 90 day reprieve in tariffs and a drop to 10% for those countries that President Trump deemed “friendly” although China, Canada and Mexico were not on the “good” list.
The rally was intense with huge volume. Little dips late in the day found ready buyers.
The SPX rose 474 points to close at 5457. Volume was 9.6 billion shares traded with 58% of all stocks rising by the close. There were still 752 new lows on Wednesday but most of that was in the morning when the sell-off continued.
The NASDAQ soared 1857 points to close at 17,125. Again there were 833 new 52 week lows but they were in the morning when investors were busy selling. 83% of all stocks were rising by the close in a massive rally.
Anyone who thought this sell-off was not squarely about tariffs was proved wrong on Wednesday when just a pause and reduction in the tariffs was all it took to send stocks soaring.
So does this mark the end of the sell-off? Was this a very short bear market?
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Wed Apr 9 2025 to see what they predict for stocks on Thu Apr 10 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Apr 9 2025
The index closed just below the 200 day moving average which is bullish.
The closing candlestick has a small top shadow which signals there will be some selling probably early morning but unless there is negative news primarily out of China, any dip will find ready buyers who missed Wednesday’s massive rally. The closing candlestick is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5546 but it is starting to turn sideways. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7/ It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5790 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5768 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5675 which is bearish.
All the moving averages slowed their decline on Wednesday by the close. While still bearish the slowing of the decline is signaling the sell-off is probably ending.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling sharply but turned sideways which, while not bullish, does indicate the bearish signal is weaker. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sharply sideways which is signaling a change is coming to the direction. This is bullish.
For Thursday the SPX chart is still strongly bearish but with many signs that the sell-off is coming to a close.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising sharply and negative. It is still very oversold. The reading is extreme at -434. There is room for a further large move higher.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Apr 3 2025. On Wed Apr 9 2025 the down signal lost a lot of strength.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and negative. It is not oversold.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is not oversold. It is signaling we should expect a higher day for today.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and not oversold. It is signaling a higher day for today.
|
| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and signaling a higher close for Thursday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5730 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5450 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5230 is support |
| 5000 is support |
| 4770 is support |
| 4680 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4365 is support |
| 4150 is support |
| 4000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 10 2025
The signals for today are indicating we will see some selling but unless there is a change in sentiment again out of the White House, stocks are positioned to move higher. That means dips are once again back in play.
Banks begin reporting earnings and that should help the rally recover as well. All the signs point to an end to the sell-off.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
3:00 Consumer credit is estimated to decline to $15.5 billion from $18.1 billion prior
Tuesday:
6:00 AM NFIB optimism indexcame in lower than estimated at -97.4
Wednesday:
10:00 Wholesale inventories came in as expected at 0.3%
2:00 Fed minutes from March interest rate meeting were a non-event as all interest was on the massive rally.
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to rise to 223,000 from 219,000 prior
8:30 Consumer price index is expected to dip to 0.1% from 0.2% prior
8:30 Consumer Price Index year-over-year is expected to dip to 2.6%
8:30 Core CPI is estimated to remain unchanged at 0.2%
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is expected to slip slightly to 0.3% from 0.31%
2:00 Monthly federal budget is expected to fall to -$115 billion from $236 billion