Thursday’s market was all about Deutsche Bank woes as well as growing skepticism over the OPEC oil production cap deal. Both of these weighed on stocks but it was the news that a number of hedge funds were pulling out of Deutsche Bank that sent stocks lower.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index closed down 20.24 points to 2,151.13, back at the 2150 level.
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones closed down 195.79 points to 18,143.45.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed down 49.39 points to 5,269.15.
Stock Market Outlook – Technical Indicators At The Close
Stock Market Outlook for Sep 29 2016
Stock Market Outlook: Chart Comments:
The S&P dropped back on Thursday closing below the 50 and the 20 day moving averages. The 20 day moving average continues to drop below the 50 day. The 100 and 200 day moving averages are still climbing but the Lower Bollinger Band is heading toward the 200 day moving average. If it crosses below Ti, it will be a major sell signal.
The closing candlestick on Thursday was bearish for Friday.
The S&P did manage to close above 2150 which is a good sign for stocks.
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels:
These are the present support and resistance levels.
The market was trying to build some support at the 2180 level. At present this is now resistance.
2160 was very light support which was retaken on Wednesday
2150 is support.
2125 is light support.
2100 is light support.
2090 is very light support.
2075 is also light support
Below that is 2050 which is light support.
2025 is better support than 2050 through to 2090.
2000 is primary support.
Weak support is at 1970 while stronger support is at 1956 and technically it is more important than 1970 for the market. 1940 is light support as is 1920. 1900 is more symbolic than anything else.
Stock Market Outlook Technical Signals
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is neutral for Friday.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on Thursday Sep 22. That buys signal was severely weakened on Thursday.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is negative and falling.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change signal is negative and lower.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic has a down signal in place.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Sep 30 2016
Acting as a major catalyst to the downside, Deutsche Bank woes will affect markets worldwide. The technical indicators which were building for a move higher, are now changed and are turning lower.
Friday will see stocks tumble lower and the 2125 level could be reached if the selling intensifies. On the other hand any news of a possible “bail-out” or government involvement in Deutsche Bank will stop the selling and there will be a relief rally. I don’t believe the German government will act yet to try to prop up Deutsche Bank. However at some point they most likely will have to act.
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