The stock market outlook for Wednesday Sep 28 2016 was for weakness to appear and the market to move lower. In the morning the market did move lower and retested the 2150 level. However an announcement of an OPEC deal to limit production at present levels commenced a 6% jump in oil prices and that turned the markets right around.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index closed up 11.44 points to 2,171.37 and back above 2170.
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones closed up 110.94 points at 18,339.24.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed up 12.84 points for the poorest showing on the day to end the day at 5,318.55. It is now well within reach of the latest all-time high of 5,342.88.
Stock Market Outlook – Technical Indicators At The Close
Stock Market Outlook – Sep 28 2016
Stock Market Outlook: Chart Comments:
The S&P pushed higher half-way through the day and closed above the 20 day moving average and at the 50 day moving average. It left behind a bullish candlestick although often this candlestick ends up being followed by a weak day, so keep that in mind tomorrow.
The 20 day moving average is below the 50 day moving average and falling lower. The 100 day and 200 day moving averages are still climbing. The Lower Bollinger Band is falling away from the 100 day toward the 200 day. This is a bearish signal. If it turns back up it will be a bullish signal.
The S&P managed to retake the 2160 and 2170 level by the close today which is important for the bulls.
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels:
These are the present support and resistance levels.
The market was trying to build some support at the 2180 level. At present this is now resistance.
2160 is very light support which was retaken on Wednesday
2150 is support.
2125 is light support.
2100 is light support.
2090 is very light support.
2075 is also light support
Below that is 2050 which is light support.
2025 is better support than 2050 through to 2090.
2000 is primary support.
Weak support is at 1970 while stronger support is at 1956 and technically it is more important than 1970 for the market. 1940 is light support as is 1920. 1900 is more symbolic than anything else.
Stock Market Outlook Technical Signals
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is positive and trying to rise.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on Thursday Sep 22. That buys signal was finally confirmed today.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and rising.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change signal is negative and moving sideways. It was not affected by the rally in the afternoon and continues to suggest the market may return to sideways movement.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic has an up signal in place.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Sep 29 2016
Nothing shows better how emotions rule the stock market than a day like today. The market was selling lower until word of an OPEC deal on production limits hit the newswire. That sent stocks higher and investors quickly jumped in and bought into stocks that just an hour earlier were falling.
This deal is based on setting limits at present levels. This is not a cut in production and means that the glut of oil will continue according to most analysts. As well OPEC has a history of deal falling through or not being lived up to. Nonetheless the news of a deal was enough to jump-start a rally.
Tomorrow could easily see the rally falter but for now the technical indicators show 3 with buy signals, two with up signals that are still rising and only one, the Rate Of Change with a negative signal and even it is only slightly negative. Thursday should see stocks move up.
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