The outlook for Tuesday was for the markets to rebound after Monday’s sell-off following Monday’s Presidential debate. With Democratic Presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton deemed to have won the first debate, many investors seemed to feel this meant a “steady” as she goes outlook for the economy. Many investors appear concerned over what a Trump Presidency might bring to the global marketplace. Nothing worries investors more than uncertainty. Oil fell back on Tuesday with no real OPEC chance of a deal on output limits to try to prop up the price of oil. Goldman cut their outlook for WTI to $43 on average for 2017, down from $50. The market advance might have been better except Deutsche Bank woes continue to hound financial stocks which definitely aided in limiting the advance.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index closed up 13.83 points for a 0.64% gain to 2,159.93.
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones closed up 133.47 points for a 0.74% gain to 18,228.30.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed up 48.22 points for the best gain of all 3 indexes at 0.92%. It closed at 5,305.71.
Stock Market Outlook – Technical Indicators At The Close
Stock Market Outlook for Sep 27 16
Stock Market Outlook: Chart Comments:
The SPX left behind another bearish candlestick for Wednesday despite the rally today. The index managed to close at the 20 day moving average but is still trading below the 50 day moving average.
The Lower Bollinger Band which was curling up and moving higher under the 100 day moving average is now falling away from the 100 day as it heads toward the 200 day moving average which is negative for stocks.
Meanwhile the 50 day moving average is starting to turn lower while the 100 and 200 day moving averages are still climbing.
The 20 day moving average is below the 50 day moving average and falling lower.
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels:
These are the present support and resistance levels.
The market was trying to build some support at the 2180 level. At present this is now resistance.
2160 was very light support which was almost retaken on Tuesday.
2150 is support which was retaken today.
2125 is light support.
2100 is light support.
2090 is very light support.
2075 is also light support
Below that is 2050 which is light support.
2025 is better support than 2050 through to 2090.
2000 is primary support.
Weak support is at 1970 while stronger support is at 1956 and technically it is more important than 1970 for the market. 1940 is light support as is 1920. 1900 is more symbolic than anything else.
Stock Market Outlook Technical Signals
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is seeing a lot of choppiness. It turned positive on Friday, negative on Monday and returned to positive on Tuesday.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on August 1. On Thursday Sep 22 it issued a weak buy signal. The buy signal is still not confirmed on Tuesday.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is back positive and rising.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change signal is negative and moving sideways.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic has a down signal in place.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Sep 28 2016
The rally on Tuesday was nice to see and did move the market back above the important 2150 level. However there are many technical signals that did not advance with the market on Tuesday and continue to point to the market as being susceptible to moving lower on Wednesday following today’s rally.
One technical signal that is discouraging for the bulls is the inability of MACD to confirm the buy signal made last Thursday. That coupled with the down signals from the two stochastic indicators along with the rate of change refusing to climb, points to a negative close on Wednesday.
Stay FullyInformed With Email Updates
Market Direction Internal Links
Profiting From Understanding Market Direction (Articles Index)
Understanding Short-Term Signals
Market Direction Portfolio Trades (Members)
Market Direction External Links
IWM ETF Russell 2000 Fund Info
Market Direction SPY ETF 500 Fund Info