Stocks started Monday with a rally which at one point had the NASDAQ within a handful of points of the 52 week high and the Dow up more than 100 points. The S&P broke through 2150 but the afternoon saw the entire rally lost on all three indexes as investors worried that the Fed may indeed raise interest rates on Wednesday. Added to this Apple Stock gave back some of last week’s gain, closing down $1.34 to $113.58.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index closed virtually unchanged at 2139.12 for a loss of 0.04 points.
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones closed down just 3.63 points to 18,120.17.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ moved lower into the close by 9.54 points to 5,235.03.
Stock Market Outlook – Technical Indicators At The Close
Stock Market Outlook for Monday Sep 19 2016
Stock Market Outlook: Chart Comments:
The SPX rally and pullback left the chart almost unchanged. A bearish candlestick was still apparent at the end of the day’s trading.
The 20 day simple moving average (SMA) is below the 50 day which issues a short-term sell signal.
All the major moving averages are continuing to climb..
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels:
These are the present support and resistance levels.
The market was trying to build some support at the 2180 level. At present this is now resistance.
2160 was very light support.
2150 was support
2125 is light support.
2100 is light support.
2090 is very light support.
2075 is also light support
Below that is 2050 which is light support.
2025 is better support than 2050 through to 2090.
2000 is primary support.
Weak support is at 1970 while stronger support is at 1956 and technically it is more important than 1970 for the market. 1940 is light support as is 1920. 1900 is more symbolic than anything else.
Stock Market Outlook Technical Signals
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is negative and moving sideways.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on August 1. That sell signal was weaker on Monday.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is negative and falling.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change signal is negative and moving sideways.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic has an up signal in place.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Sep 20 2016
For Tuesday there are a couple of changes with the technical indicators. Both stochastic indicators are now signaling up for the market. All the other indicators are negative. The outlook for Tuesday is unchanged from Monday, sideways with a slight bias up.
Caution is still warranted heading into the Fed’s interest rate announcement.
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