Wednesday saw stocks grind higher as oil jumped higher, especially when US inventories showed a decline. As well the Fed’s Beige Book showed that the Fed remains mostly positive on the outlook for the economy which meant another rate increase in December or possibly November, is probably going to happen. While this concerns investors it also indicates that the economy is improving which investors also favor.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index closed up just 4.69 points for a small gain of 0.22% but during the day it came close to challenging the 2150 level. It closed at 2,144,29.
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones closed up 40.68 points to close at 18,202.62.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ rose just 2.58 points to close at 5,246.41.
Stock Market Outlook – Technical Indicators At The Close
Stock Market Outlook – Oct 19 2016
Stock Market Outlook: Chart Comments:
On Wednesday Oct 19 the SPX moved higher to 2148.44 and then closed back at 2144.29. The slight gain on the day left a neutral candlestick behind, but the index did close just above the 100 day moving average.
The 20 day moving average is still below the 50 day moving average and is continuing to fall. The 50 day moving average is also falling.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are moving sideways.
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels:
These are the present support and resistance levels.
The market was trying to build some support at the 2180 level. At present this is now resistance.
2160 was very light support.
2150 was support.
2125 is light support.
2100 is light support.
2090 is very light support.
2075 is also light support
Below that is 2050 which is light support.
2025 is better support than 2050 through to 2090.
2000 is primary support.
Weak support is at 1970 while stronger support is at 1956 and technically it is more important than 1970 for the market. 1940 is light support as is 1920. 1900 is more symbolic than anything else.
Stock Market Outlook Technical Signals
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is negative and it is still moving sideways. Momentum has been negative daily since Oct 5 except for one day.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on Oct 11 2016. The sell signal is quite a bit weaker on Wednesday.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is negative and moving more sideways than up or down.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change signal is slightly positive but again more sideways than up or down.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic has an up signal in place.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Oct 20 2016
For Thursday the technical indicators are still showing a great deal of indecision. Two are positive, the stochastic indicators. Three indicators are still stuck sideways and MACD is negative but only weakly. However the move up today was rejected and the market while it did close higher, did so by less than 5 points.
TThursday would see weakness in the morning but the indicators continue to point to some strength for the afternoon. As long as earnings continue to be relatively decent, stocks should close higher on Thursday.
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