Weakness on Tuesday was anticipated in last night’s stock market outlook. Intraday the NASDAQ made another new all-time high and the S&P and Dow both are close to their all-time highs.
Oil prices remain in turmoil as Iran refused to established production limits. The chance for an OPEC deal with any kind of consistency is slim and that kept oil prices under pressure. The dollar was under some pressure on Tuesday following a 14 year peak last week.
Consumer confidence moved higher as did Healthcare stocks. Gold prices dipped as did bond yields. In general the weakness in equities on Tuesday was still being bought into by investors.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index rose 2.94 points to close at 2204.66 after dipping slightly below 2200 intraday..
Dow Jones Index
The Dow Jones rose 23.70 to 19,121.60.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ rose 11.11 points to close at 5,379.92. Intraday the NASDAQ reached 5,403.86 a new all-time high.
Stock Market Outlook
Chart Comments At The Close:
Stock Market Outlook review for Nov 29 2016
The S&P ended uesday still above 2200 although it did fall back intraday to just below. The 2195 is holding up the market for the 5 day which is building momentum for the 20 day to keep climbing. The S&P is above all the major moving averages. All the averages are continuing to climb despite the two days of weakness since making a new high on Friday last week.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators
Stock Market Outlook Technical Review from Nov 29 2016
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum has pulled back from last week but it is still positive and rather than falling further, it is now moving sideways which indicates that the outlook is still positive for stocks.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on Nov 9. The buy signal remains strong but it is not rising.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I use for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic is still signaling down and shows the market as extremely overbought.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) : For the Relative Strength Index (RSI) I use a period of 5 which is a week of activity and is often quite accurate. The RSI has pulled back following Monday action but today it is trying to rise.
Stock Market Outlook technical review from Nov 29 2016
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is dipping lower indicating that the market is falling away from being extremely overbought.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change signal is positive and is continuing to rise indicating higher prices lie ahead for the index.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and shows the market as extremely overbought.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Nov 30 2016
For the final day of September, the outlook is relatively unchanged. The two stochastic indicators show the market as being overbought and starting to move lower. MACD also indicates that the strength of its buy signal is eroding but the rate of change is moving higher indicating higher prices lie ahead. Overall the outlook remains one of weakness for stocks but a positive close is still expected for Wednesday.
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