Despite disappointing earnings from Walmart and Cisco after the markets closed on Wednesday, Thursday’s market took those losses in stride and continued to climb. The US dollar moved higher and oil which was climbing earlier in the day pulled back into the close as a high dollar and rising US inventories, push crude prices lower. The Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in better than expected and that also grabbed the attention of investors who believe the market can withstand an interest rate increase in December from the Federal Reserve. Jobs are now at a 43 year high and despite so many employed, the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims point to continued strength in the jobs markets with very limited layoffs evident.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index gained 10.18 points to rise almost half a percent to close at 2187.12.
Dow Jones Index
The Dow Jones moved higher by 0.19% to close up 35.68 points to 19,903.82 another new closing high.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ climbed 0.74% with a gain of 39.39 points to close at 5,333.97.
Stock Market Outlook – Chart Comments At The Close
Stock Market Outlook – Nov 17 2016
The S&P nded the day near the highs for the day, closing above 2180 for the first time since early September. The 20 day simple moving average (SMA) continues to climb towards the 50 day simple moving average (SMA). Both the 200 and 100 day moving averages are turning back up. The Lower Bollinger Band and Upper Bollinger Band are widening away from the market movement indicating there is more upside to the rally.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Comments At Close:
Stock Market Outlook Technical view Nov 17 2016
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is now at its highest level since July 11. Today it continued to climb.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on Nov 9. The buy signal remains strong and is rising.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I use for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic is still signaling up and shows the market as extremely overbought.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) : For the Relative Strength Index (RSI) I use a period of 5 which is a week of activity and is often quite accurate. The RSI is still pointing to the market as extremely overbought which is often followed by a pullback.
Stock Market Outlook Market Outlook Technical View Nov 17 2016 At the close
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is still showing the market as overbought.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change signal is still positive and rising.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place again for Friday. It is extremely overbought.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Nov 18 2016
The S&P is continuing to climb and is preparing to challenge 2190 and move above it. The index closed almost at the high for the day. Often the following day the market will pullback or dip at the open. On Friday this could be an opportunity for setting up more trades.
Friday will be more volatile as it is the monthly options expiry for November. The outlook is for weakness and a dip but overall the close should be higher, even if only slightly.
The technical indicators are all pointing to higher prices for the S&P.
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