Prior Trading Day Summary
On Fri Sep 5 2025, stocks came under selling pressure as the August employment numbers were poor showing just 22,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. The selling though found buyers as investors jumped on the poor job growth as a signal the Fed would have to cut rates later this month and probably a number of times before year-end.
The SPX closed down just 20 points to 6481. For the week the index was higher by 21 points and set new all-time highs during the week.
The NASDAQ closed down just 7 points by the close at 21700. For the week the index was up 244 points.
With the August jobs numbers behind us, ahead we get the latest Producer Price Index reports and Consumer Price Index later this week, ahead of next week’s FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday Sep 17. The next two weeks could be volatile.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Fri Sep 5 2025 to see what we should expect for Mon Sep 8 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Sep 5 2025
The index fell to the 21 day moving average intraday on Friday but bounced back. It closed below the Upper Bollinger but above the 21 day moving average which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Monday. There is a long shadow on Friday’s candlestick which usually signals a dip is likely on Monday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6439 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6349 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6659 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5972 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is higher and above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling lower which is bearish. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze starts the week off. At present there is no clear signal whether stocks will move higher or lower out of the latest Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
The SPX chart is more more bearish than bullish for Monday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Sep 5 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Aug 19 2025. On Fri Sep 5 2025 the down signal lost more strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling a lower close for Mon Sep 8 2025. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Sep 8 2025
We could see some weakness to start the day and then another attempt to move higher. The close has a good chance to be lower.
There are no economic events on Monday that will move markets up or down and for the bulls, that’s a good thing. The closing candlestick was bearish on Friday and while the technical indicators point to a lower close, bullish sentiment is still strong. The outlook is for a bounce and a lower close but there is almost an equal chance the index will close higher in the last half hour of the trading day on Monday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
3:00 Consumer credit is expected to rise to $15.0 billion from $7.4 billion prior