Prior Trading Day Summary:
Friday bounced higher at the open on the back of better than estimated PCE numbers. The S&P reached 5763 within 4 points of the all-time intraday high on Thursday before selling started. By the close the S&P had ended the day down 7 points at 5738.
Volume was 4 billion shares traded and despite the weaker close up volume was 69% and 62% of all stocks were rising.
The NASDAQ also closed down. It lost 70 points to 18,119. Volume was 5.5 billion shares and again 66% of all volume was being traded higher and 57% of all stocks were rising.
Friday then was primarily profit-taking ahead of the start of October.
For the final day of September, let’s review the SPX technical closing indicators from Fri Sep 27 to see what to expect for Mon Sep 30.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Sep 27 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and just below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.
The closing candlestick has two shadows (head and tail). This shows a certain amount of indecision on Friday heading into the weekend and a new month. Overall it is still bullish.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5614. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5530. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5450 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5225 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average which is bullish.
The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Monday with just the closing candlestick warning.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Sep 27 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive for a third day.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Sep 13 2024. The up signal was weaker again on Friday. Note the declining histogram.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal and is at overbought levels.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive. It is at overbought levels.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising which advises Monday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5740 is resistance |
| 5715 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5625 is resistance |
| 5615 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is light support |
| 5525 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5470 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Sep 30 2024
The technical indicators are continuing to weaken on Friday. The momentum and MACD indicator in particular are showing the rally is slowing and possibly stalling.
With no economic reports of consequence on Monday, the indicators are showing a weak day is probable for the final day of September. Overall however the outlook remains bullish. Monday afternoon Fed Chair Powell speaks but nothing new is expected.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 Chicago business barometer is estimated to slip to 45.3 from 46.1
1:55 Fed Chair Powell gives a speech