Prior Trading Day Summary
On Friday investors attempted a bounce which lasted until the afternoon when sellers returned and pushed back at buyers. Another attempt late afternoon also found ready sellers who sent the index still lower into the close.
The SPX fell 9 points ending the day at 4320.
The NASDAQ lost 12 points to close at 13,211.
By the close on Friday stocks were very oversold and below all major moving averages except the 200 period. They were below the August lows.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Sep 22 2023 to see what to expect for the start of the final week of September.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Sep 22 2023
The index closed below the 50, 21 and 100 period moving averages for a second day which is bearish. The closing candlestick is bearish but also signals very oversold with another chance for a bounce.
The 50 period and 21 period moving averages are falling which is bearish. The 100 and 200 period moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is also bullish and signals the latest Bollinger Bands Squeeze is over.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
|Momentum: Momentum is falling sharply and negative. It is signaling oversold.|
|MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Sep 18. On Friday the down signal was much stronger.|
|Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged and negative. It is oversold.|
|Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is extremely oversold.|
|Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and negative. It is oversold.|
|Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and negative. It is at levels where a bounce should be expected.|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels
|4600 is resistance|
|4575 is resistance|
|4550 is resistance|
|4525 is resistance|
|4500 is resistance|
|4485 is resistance|
|4470 is resistance|
|4450 is support|
|4435 is support|
|4420 is support|
|4400 is support|
|4390 is support|
|4370 is support|
|4350 is support|
|4330 is support|
|4325 is support|
|4300 is good support|
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Sep 25 2023
For Monday stocks are sitting extremely oversold and set to attempt another bounce. There are however many headwinds for stocks. If Treasury yields were to dip on Monday and oil pullback a couple dollars, the market would have a good chance for a strong rally. Instead without those catalysts, any bounce will probably continue to find ready sellers.
Monday has a good chance for a second bounce attempt but the late afternoon could, once again, find sellers. If there is no bounce on Monday the support / resistance levels will start to see changes in the table above.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This week the reports are lighter which could assist the bulls. The most telling report is the PCE Index on Friday.
No significant reports