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Stock Market Outlook For Mon Sep 22 2025 – Morning Weakness Possible

Sep 22, 2025 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook Morning Weakness Possible But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Fri Sep 19 2025, stocks continued their advance with the S&P up 32 points to close at a new high of 6664. Volume was 9.4 billion shares thanks to triple witching on Friday.

For the week the S&P rose 80 points and for the month of September it is up 203 points, one of the best September’s in years.

The NASDAQ rose 160 points for a new closing high of 22,631.  Volume climbed to 15.1 billion thanks to triple witching. For the week the index rose 490 points and for the month of September it is up 1175 points, also one of the best Septembers in years.

Lets review the closing technical indicators from Fri Sep 19 2025 to see if stocks can continue to advance for the 4th straight week.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Sep 19 2025

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and at the Upper Bollinger which is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish but with two shadows, top and bottom which signals dips or spikes are likely on Monday.

The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6517 which is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6421 which is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6242 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6029 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. At present the outlook is still for stocks to move higher.

The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish from Mondayy. All moving averages are above 6000 which is bullish for further advances.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Sep 19 2025


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Sep 10 2025. On Fri Sep 19 2025 the up signal gained strength.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is signaling overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising, signaling a higher close is expected for Mon Sep 22 2025.

Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.


Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

6675 is resistance
6650 is resistance
6625 is resistance
6600 is resistance
6590 is resistance
6570 is resistance
6535 is resistance
6510 is resistance
6500 is resistance
6470 is resistance
6450 is resistance
6425 is resistance
6400 is resistance
6390 is resistance
6365 is resistance
6350 is resistance
6325 is resistance
6300 is support
6250 is support
6225 is support
6200 is support
6175 is support
6150 is support
6125 is support
6100 is support
6075 is support
6050 is support
6025 is support
6000 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Mon Sep 22 2025 

For Mon Sep 22 2025 the technical indicators are strongly bullish but continue to also warn the index is advising that many stocks are overbought.

For Monday, expect dips and weakness in the morning as some investors take profits, but dip buyers will be quick to snap up stocks that pull back. The close will see the SPX higher to start the 4th week of September. They are no economic reports on Monday which is usually bullish for stocks.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

There are no economic reports

 

 

 

 

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