Stock Market Outlook for Mon Sep 17 2018 – Sideways With Slight Bias Up

Friday saw stocks end the day flat. For the week though, stock indexes finished higher.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Sep 14 2018

The S&P was flat on Friday which set up the index with a bearish candlestick to start off the third week of September.

All the other major moving averages are still climbing which is bullish but the Lower Bollinger Band is moving toward the 50 day moving average. This is a bit bearish, especially with the Upper Bollinger Band moving lower.

Stock Market Outlook review of Sep 14 2018

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is neutral to start off the week.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Sep 6 2018. The down signal was weaker again on Friday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for a third day.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Levels To Be Aware Of:

2830 is light support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support.

2700 is support.

2675 is light support.

2650 is light support

2620 is light support

2600 is strong support.

There is good support at the 2550 level from where the market bounced back from the recent correction low on Feb 9.

The S&P has light support at 2480. It also has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350. 2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction as a drop to this level would be 20% and just 5% away from a potential bear market signal.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Sep 17 2018 

For the last couple of days of the second week of September, the S&P saw better strength and that has turned most of the technical indicators higher.

The main hold-out is MACD which continues to stay negative.

That means for Monday we should see continued weakness but a good chance for a higher close, even a slight one.

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