Prior Trading Day Summary
On Fri Sep 12 2025 the day ended with a new all-time high on the NASDAQ and a slight loss on the S&P.
The SPX dipped 3 points to close at 6584 on 4.7 billion shares traded. 59% of the volume was moving lower by the close along with 64% of all stocks. The loss though was small.
The NASDAQ ended higher by 98 points to 22,141. Volume slipped to 9.3 billion shares traded. 58% of all volume was being traded higher but 62% of all stocks were moving lower.
As investors head into the third week of September, we are entering a week when we get a better idea how retail is doing and on Wednesday we get the latest Fed decision on interest rates. Most analysts believe the Fed will cut rates a quarter of a point. Others believe the Fed will cut half a point.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Fri Sep 12 2025 to see what we should expect for Mon Sep 15 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Sep 12 2025
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday but there is a top shadow which signals investors should be prepared for a potential dip today.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6472 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6384 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6201 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5999 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is back below the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is still present but may be ending this week. At present the outlook is still for stocks to move higher out of this latest squeeze but that’s a best guess. We will know more shortly.
The SPX chart is bullish for Monday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Sep 12 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Sep 10 2025. On Fri Sep 12 2025 the up signal was confirmed.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is signaling overbought.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling but still overbought.
|
| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling a lower close for Mon Sep 15 2025. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6535 is resistance |
| 6510 is resistance |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Sep 15 2025
For Monday, the technical signals are advising that stocks are overbought and may dip back but the outlook is still bullish. On Tuesday we get the latest retail sales numbers and on Wednesday it is expected the Fed will cut interest rates. For Monday’s close, expect a flat to slightly higher close as investors wait for both of these numbers.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
3:00 Empire State manufacturing survey is estimated to fall sharply to 4.5 from 11.9 prior