Stock Market Outlook for Mon Oct 30 2023 – Deeply Oversold But Lower Close Still Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Friday the SPX opened slightly higher and tried to rally but by 11:30 the rally was over and the remainder of the day saw more selling. Intraday on Friday the SPX fell just shy of 4103 before closing at 4117. It was a dismal end to what was a tough week for equities. The SPX lost 19.86 points. For the week it lost 106 points.

The NASDAQ managed to rise 47 points on Friday to close at 12,643 but for the week it lost 340 points. That was still better than the previous week when the index lost 423 points.

Stocks ended Friday with most very oversold. This week investors get the latest consumer confidence numbers, Fed decision on interest rates and Fed Chair Powell’s news conference on Wednesday and on Friday the October non-farm payroll numbers. This will be a busy and probably volatile week.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Oct 27 2023 to see what to expect for Mon Oct 30 2023.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Oct 27 2023

The index closed below all major moving averages which is bearish. The closing candlestick ended the day at the Lower Bollinger Band which is bearish.

The closing candlestick continues to point to a potential bounce attempt and shows stocks as oversold.

The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all falling which is bearish. The 21 day moving average is falling to the 200 day. If it moves below it, this will be another bearish signal.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower which is bearish and could signal more downside to come. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is at present indicating oversold.

The S&P chart is quite bearish but again indicators still suggest a bounce could happen at any time.

Stock Market Outlook Review of Fri Oct 27 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Oct 30 2023 

Last week investors saw a number of technical indicators that showed the economy is doing better than analysts were expecting and inflation was creeping higher. With Treasury Yields elevated the chance of a rebound is slim but a bounce of one or two days could occur. The problem this week is many economic indicators are reporting including the Fed’s latest decision on interest rates and the October non-farm payroll numbers. Both of those can be market moving events.

Despite a very oversold condition, signals still advise caution. They still point to taking profits when they present themselves and placing less capital back into trades until there is a solid up signal in the index.

For Monday the signal advise investors should see a steady, choppy day of trading with a number of attempts to move higher but ending with a flat to lower close.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

This week investors get the latest consumer confidence numbers on Tuesday, Fed decision on interest rates and Fed Chair Powell’s news conference on Wednesday and on Friday the October non-farm payroll numbers. This will be a busy and volatile week.

Monday:

There are no economic reports