Prior Trading Day Summary
On Fri Oct 17 2025 stocks ended the day higher after shaking off bank “bad debt” worries and placing concerns about tariffs with China on the back burner.
The S&P closed up 35 points to 6664. For the week the index added 111 points.
The NASDAQ rose 117 points to close at 22,679. and for the week the index was up 475 points.
The technical indicators lost some strength to their down signals but perhaps most important, the VIX fell almost 18% on Friday signaling a chance for a higher day on Monday.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Fri Oct 17 2025 to see what they advise investors for Mon Oct 20 2025
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Oct 17 2025
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band but at the 21 day moving average. While still bearish, it’s a good sign for the bulls.
The closing candlestick is signaling overbought and a probable dip early to mid-morning on Monday but a higher close.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6673 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6564 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6384 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6146 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average and is moving sideways which is neutral. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which is bearish. The chance of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze is high and could start this week.
The SPX chart is still more bearish than bullish for Monday. All moving averages are above 6100 which is bullish for further advances. The 21 day advanced just a single point on Friday which is a poor sign and a signal weakness may continue to grow.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Oct 17 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling strongly negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Oct 9 2025. On Fri Oct 17 2025 the down signal lost some strength but is still at a level where a bounce could occur.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place but it is weak but could gain strength if Monday is higher for stocks.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is slightly rising. It is signaling a chance for a higher day on Monday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
| 6450 is support |
| 6425 is support |
| 6400 is support |
| 6350 is support |
| 6325 is support |
| 6300 is support |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Oct 20 2025
For Mon Oct 20 2025 the technical signals lost some of the “down” signals we saw on Thursday after the close. However none of the up signals is very strong. It will take more than a day of rising stocks before the signals will gain more strength to the upside.
Some technical signals are still showing that a bounce could happen to start the week. Much will depend on the geopolitical and banking news today. If it is negative rhetoric watch for stocks to slip.
The outlook though is for a higher open, a dip early to mid-morning and then a higher afternoon and close in a choppy trading session.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Leading economic indicators for September are expected to rise to -0.3% from -0.5% prior. This data may not get released due to the government shutdown.