Friday’s October jobs numbers came in much higher than expected as 261,000 jobs were added, higher than the 205,000 estimated. The unemployment rate inched higher though to 3.7% which investors took as a signal that higher interest rates were starting to show an impact. Despite the higher October number, the employment gains are still continuing the trend of slowing from a year earlier. That has analysts starting to switch from speculating a 0.75% rate hike in December to a half rate hike and that too fueled stock buying on Friday.
The SPX had a rather wild day as it fell to 3708 and rallied to 3796 before finally closing up 50 points to 3770.
The NASDAQ also saw a wide range as it fell to 10,262 and spiked to 10,553 before closing at 10,475 for a 132 point gain or a rise of 1.2% on the day.
Trading volume on both indexes were heavily slanted to the upside.
Friday’s investor reaction to the jobs numbers was better than I had expected and the buying of equities on dips in both exchanges was fairly brisk, showing that buyers remain interested in picking through the bear market carnage to date. It also showed that Wednesday’s Fed Chair Powell’s negative comments on the prospects of slowing down interest rate hikes going forward had already lost their affect. Many investors have already put Wednesday’s plunge in equities behind them.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Nov 4 2022 to see what to expect for Mon Nov 7 2022.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Nov 4 2022
On Friday the S&P closing candlestick closed back above the 21 day moving average but left behind a signal of indecision.
The Upper Bollinger Band has turned back down but is above the 50 day and 100 day moving average which is still bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moving sideways rather than up or down. This is neutral which is better for the bulls.
The 21 day moving average is dipping lower which is bearish.
The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are still falling. This is bearish.
There are 7 down signals in place since April and no up signals. The chart has switched back to bearish but the indecisive closing candlestick could signal upside ahead.
The chart is 75% bearish for Monday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Nov 4 2022
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is falling and barely positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday Oct 16. On Friday the up signal took another big hit and lost most of the up signal. The histogram also is ready to turn positive.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and could reach oversold readings early next week.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is falling sharply.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal however is rising.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is also back rising and turned positive on Friday.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4000 is resistance
3975 is resistance
3965 is resistance
3950 is resistance
3925 is resistance
3900 is resistance
3875 is resistance
3850 is resistance
3825 is resistance
3800 is resistance
3775 is light resistance
3750 is light resistance
3730 is light support
3700 is light support
3675 is light support
3650 is light support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Nov 7 2022
Signals are mixed to start the second week of November. The closing candlestick was indecisive after Friday’s swings in the market. The technical indicators are agreeing with the closing candlestick as no clear direction is easy to spot.
For Monday, the technical indicators are more bearish than bullish to be sure but there is still some bullishness in the signals in particular among the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Rate Of Change signals. These could be a direct result of investors believing a change in the mid-term elections is likely and which many investors believe could mean a change to the economic direction.
As well, buying in the markets on Friday was quite brisk and the day found ready buyers of every dip. That is a bullish signal.
Last week the technical indicators were more bullish to start the month of November and pointed to a continuation of October’s advance. This week they are more mixed with a noticeable bearish bias, but anticipation of a change with the mid-term elections on Tuesday could be enough to push stocks higher on Monday.
I would pick the bullish scenario for Monday and expect stocks to try to climb still higher ahead of Tuesday’s elections.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Tuesday we get the mid-term elections which often result in a bullish bounce. Thursday we get a slew of inflation reports. This is bound to be a choppy week for trading.
Monday:
3:00 Consumer Credit
6:00 Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on inflation
Tuesday:
Mid-Term Elections
Thursday:
A number of inflation reports
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
