Prior Trading Day Summary
On Friday Nov 3 Treasury yields weakened further and stocks moved higher. The SPX advanced 40 points to close at 4359. For the week the index gained 241 points.
The NASDAQ rose 184 points for a weekly gain of 835 points. The index ended the day at 13,478.
Volumes were high on both indexes with the S&P seeing 4.6 billion shares traded and the NASDAQ saw a second day of 5 billion shares.
The weeks was incredible for the bulls and while a number of analysts called the rally a “basic short-selling covering”, there were signs both Thursday and Friday that the rally was broadening. Often this indicates the rally has further to run.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Nov 3 2023 to see what to expect for Mon Nov 6 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Nov 3 2023
The index closed above all major moving averages on Friday much of it on the back of a weaker jobs report for October. With a large number of analysts signaling they believe rising interest rates are finished, investors are jumping in with the belief that the rally can last into the year end.
The closing candlestick ended the day above 4300 with a long shadow which often signals some weakness for Monday or Tuesday should be expected. Indeed after the rally from last week, some dips are likely.
The 21 day moving average bounced off the 200 day on Thursday and moved higher on Friday. This is bullish.
The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all falling which is bearish. But they are lagging indicators and we should begin to see them turn higher, if the rally can continue.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is also turning higher. This too is bullish.
The S&P chart is bearish but indicates the bounce has further to run this week.
Stock Market Outlook review of For Nov 3 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Fri Nov 3 2023 the close saw a strong confirmation of that up signal.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4400 is resistance |
| 4375 is resistance |
| 4350 is resistance |
| 4325 is resistance |
| 4300 is support |
| 4275 is light support |
| 4250 is light support |
| 4235 is light support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
| 4185 is support |
| 4175 is support |
| 4150 is good support |
| 4135 is support |
| 4125 is support |
| 4115 is support |
| 4100 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 6 2023
For Monday the morning should see some weakness and dips are likely. The 4300 level in the SPX is back as support and the next support level should end up being the 4350 which had been good support in August.
For Monday, expect weakness in the morning with dips but those dips should find ready buyers who missed the rally last week and will want to get into the market. The close should be higher today.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This week bond markets are closed on Friday which often assists the bulls on Friday. HIstorically this is a strong week for stocks. There are few economic reports this week that would disrupt the bulls. A number of Fed officials speak but nothing new is expected. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Wed and Thursday at IMF.
Monday:
There are no economic reports