Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 20 2023 – Still Overbought But Bullish

Nov 20, 2023 | Stock Market Outlook

Overbought But BullishPrior Trading Day Summary:

On Fri Nov 17 investors kept the S&P above 4500 for the entire day. While the gains made seemed small at the close with the SPX up just 5.78 points to 4514, the decline in sellers may signal another move higher for the shortened week of Thanksgiving.

Volume was low on Friday with just 3.8 billion shares traded on the S&P. 74% of all volume as traded to the upside.

On the NASDAQ the index was higher by 11 points on 4.5 billion shares traded with 74% of that volume to the upside.

With a shortened week ahead and the latest FOMC minutes released on Tuesday, normally this is a week of small advances for the indexes leading to Thanksgiving and then Black Friday shopping.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Nov 17 2023 to see what to expect for Mon Nov 20 2023.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Nov 17 2023

The index closed above all major moving averages and continued to move away from the Upper Bollinger Band. The outlook is still bullish.

The closing candlestick ended the day above 4500 which is bullish and continues to signal an overbought market.

The 21 day moving average continued to climb away from the 200 day which is bullish and is heading to the 100 day. A move above it would be a major up signal.

The 50 day moving average is moving away, above the 100 day as it continues to try to bounce.

The 200 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is moving lower which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which is also bullish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish heading into Monday but is still overbought..

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Nov 17 2023

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Nov 17 2023



Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Fri Nov 17 2023 the close saw a slight dip in the strength of the up signal.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is signaling overbought.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place and is very overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is signaling overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. It is signaling Monday we should see further advances.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

4550 is resistance
4535 is resistance
4520 is resistance
4500 is resistance
4490 is resistance
4475 is resistance
4450 is support
4440 is support
4425 is support
4400 is support
4375 is support
4350 is support
4325 is support
4300 is support
4275 is light support
4250 is light support
4235 is light support
4225 is support
4200 is good support
4185 is support
4175 is support
4150 is good support

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 20 2023 

The technical indicators are still bullish and continue to signal overbought. Dips are likely but not expected to be deep on Monday.

For Monday the outlook is still higher for stocks by the close but dips are likely intraday.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Tuesday is the latest FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM. This should be the major economic event for the week.


10:00 Leading economic indicators are expected to be unchanged at -0.7%


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