What Happened On Fri Nov 17 2017:
Friday saw stocks turn sideways and hold a slight bias to the downside with the S&P closing down 0.26%. The Dow Jones Index was the worst performer of the three major indexes. It fell 100 points to close down 0.43%.
Closing Statistics for Fri Nov 17 2017:
S&P 500 Index Close
The S&P index ended down 6.79 to 2578.85
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones ended down 100.12 to 23,358.24
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed down 10.50 to 6782.79
Stock Market Outlook – Review of Fri Nov 17 2017
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 20 2017
Chart Comments At The Close:
On Friday a dip was expected following Thursday’s big rally. The dip though lasted all day. The S&P closed down slightly on the day but left a bearish candlestick and a close right at the 21 day moving average.
The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is still continuing with no clear signals as to the direction stocks may move out of the squeeze.
All major moving averages are still climbing.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is falling and negative.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on Oct 24. The sell signal is weaker than earlier in the third week of November but still has a reasonably strong sell signal in place at minus 2.86.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator signal is now falling.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic for Monday is neutral.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is falling for Monday.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. The rate of change signal is positive but falling for Monday.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
There is support at the 2550 level which could assist in pushing the index higher in November.
The S&P has light support at 2480. It also has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350. 2300 has the most support at present.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Nov 20 2017
For Monday Nov 20 2017, the signals are weaker than we would expect after the jump on Thursday. All the signals are either pointing lower or have sell signals in place.
This though is a short week and the start of the Black Friday sales event. Normally we should expect some sideways action with a bias to the upside as stocks head into the short holiday week.
Volumes may thin out a bit so I would expect a bias to the downside for Monday morning but then a move either sideways or slightly higher for the close.
The future for Monday though look to be a fair amount lower but it is early on Sunday night and a lot can happen before markets open on Monday. I would however expect weakness to be dominant once again.
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