Prior Trading Day Summary:
For Friday semiconductor stocks were leading the markets lower. By the close the S&P was down 78 points to 5870. For the week the index lost 125 points as the post-election rally came to an end.
The NASDAQ fell 427 points ending at 18,680. For the week the index lost 606 points.
With NVIDIA earnings on tap for Wed Nov 20 after the close, markets may have a rough time until those earnings are known.
Let reviews the close on Friday Nov 15 to see what to expect for Monday Nov 18 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Nov 15 2024
The index traded below the Upper Bollinger Band and closed at the lows of the day. This is bearish for Monday.
The closing candlestick has no shadows which often advises a further down day is expected. That said, the index closed at the 21 day moving average which almost always will see a bounce attempt even if it will fall lower either later in the day or in the week.
The 21 day moving average is flat and is at 5860 This is bearish..
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5772. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5645 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5403 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving sideways which is neutral and could signal a turn lower coming up early this week for the Bollinger Bands.
The S&P chart is more bearish for Monday with some signs of a bounce off the 21 day moving average possible.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Nov 15 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 7 2024. The up signal lost most strength on Friday and could issue an unconfirmed down signal is Monday closes lower.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling sharply.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply.
|
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling sharply which indicates a lower day is probable by Monday’s close.
|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is rsistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5815 is resistance |
| 5800 is support |
| 5790 is support |
| 5775 is support |
| 5765 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 18 2024
For Monday investors could see a potential bounce in the morning followed by perhaps a test of Friday’s low. There is a chance investors will hold on further selling of semiconductors which were crushed on Friday. On Wednesday after the close we get the latest NVIDIA earnings. If good, they could spark the rally. Meanwhile on Tuesday before the open we get Walmart earnings which could assist the bulls.
This is November, one of the stronger months for stocks. While not rare to see a correction in November, it is rare to see a lower month overall. Part of the problem is the post-election rally was perhaps too strong and pushed many stocks to extremes. Once profit-taking started last week, it failed to slow and by Friday once semiconductor stocks began to fall sharply, a lot of sellers joined the down move. For Monday watch for a bounce but stay cautious until we get through Tuesday and Wednesday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Home builder confidence index is estimated to dip slightly to 42 from 43.