Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 18 2019 – Overbought But Higher

Stock Market Outlook Overbought Bias Up

Friday saw all 3 indexes close at new all-time highs. It marked the first time for the Dow Jones Index to close above 28,000 and the first close for the S&P above 3100.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Nov 15 2019

The SPX chart is bullish for Monday. The closing candlestick on Friday was bullish for Monday.

3030 is light support. All the major moving averages are climbing including the 50 and 21 day moving averages. The 21 day moving average is still rising above the 3030 level which is bullish. The 50 day is above the 3000 level which is also bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band has moved above the 100 day moving average which is bullish.

The two buy signals from September are still in place.

Overall the chart remains bullish and the index as of Friday was back trying to climb higher, again.

Stock Market Outlook review of Nov 15 2019


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and moving sideways.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Oct 15 2019. The up signal was gaining strength again on Friday.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is rising and moving back to signaling overbought.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic is extremely overbought and has an up signal in place.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is overbought and rising.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is also rising signaling higher prices are ahead for the index.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3100 is resistance

3030 in light support

3000 is support

2960 is light support

2950 was light support

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Nov 18 2019 

The technical indicators are showing the market is becoming overbought again, especially after Friday’s run to new all-time highs.

There are no technical indicators pointing to a lower day for Monday but instead most are rising and signaling that despite the market being overbought higher prices lie ahead. We will most likely see dips on Monday after Friday’s record close, but dips will be opportunities to setup more trades. For the S&P, another close above 3100 will assist in paving the way for the index to rise to 3200 by the end of November.


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