Prior Trading Day Summary
On Friday stocks opened lower and the S&P fell below the 50 day moving average. That brought in buyers who pushed the index back above the 50 day and touched the 21 day moving average to initiate a bounce after Thursday’s sell-off.
The S&P fell just 3 points to close at 6734. Volume was 5.1 billion shares with 42% of stocks rising and 55% falling. For the week the index was up 5 points.
The NASDAQ rose 30 points to close at 22,900. Volume was 11.1 billion shares. 41% of stocks were rising while 56% were falling. For the week the NASDAQ was down 92 points marking a second week of small losses.
A bounce had been expected for Friday following Thursday’s sell-off. Now the question is whether Friday marks the low for the present sell-off.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Nov 14 2025 to see whether Monday will see the bounce continue.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Nov 14 2025
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band and 21 day moving average. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Monday but with a long shadow, we could see a second bounce attempt on Monday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6788 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6704 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6519 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6265 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average and rising which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish and could be signaling a Bollinger Bands Squeeze is coming shortly.
The SPX chart has more bearish signals for Monday but there is a good chance investors will try for a second bounce today.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Nov 14 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Wed Nov 5. On Fri Nov 14 2025 the down signal was strongly negative.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a sharp down signal.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising, signaling Monday will be higher. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6900 is resistance |
| 6875 is resistance |
| 6850 is resistance |
| 6800 is resistance |
| 6775 is resistance |
| 6750 is resistance |
| 6715 is resistance |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is support |
| 6590 is support |
| 6570 is support |
| 6550 is support |
| 6500 is support |
| 6450 is support |
| 6425 is support |
| 6400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 17 2025
For Mon Nov 17 2025 Watch for a higher open and then a dip lower. Following a dip expect a choppy day with the index trying to close higher by the end of the day.
Stocks are not as oversold as they were Thursday by the close. Monday may see some selling, especially in some tech names again including NVIDIA Stock (NVDA). On Friday NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) plunged to almost $180 before closing the day at $190. We could see this stock back around $187 or even $186 today but buyers are on the sidelines. Many missed the buying opportunity that Thursday’s sell-off provided. That means dips today will find buyers who missed Friday’s bounce and will try to grab stocks in any selling today.
For Friday the technical indicators are weak and pointing to lower for stocks. In particular the MACD technical indicator is back has once again strong down signals in place. However at these levels, often the bounce lasts more than a day. I expect Monday will be choppy but many investors will want to get into some positions. For that reason we should see a higher close today.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is estimated to have fallen to 5.5 from 10.7 prior