Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 16 2020 – Overbought But Bias Up

Friday saw stock indexes climb further with the S&P adding another 1.3% to close up 48 points to 3585.

The day ended with the index within easy striking distance of the higher from Monday Nov 9 of 3645.99.

Let’s look at Friday’s closing numbers to see how the week may start.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Nov 13 2020

Friday saw the index recover all of Thursday’s dip to end just below the 3600 level. The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday and just below the high of the day of 3593.

The Upper Bollinger Band continues to climb above SPX 3600 and the Lower Bollinger Band is falling further indicating there is more upside ahead. The 21 day, 50 day, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all rising, a bullish sign. The 200 day moving average is rising toward the Lower Bollinger Band. If it crosses above it, it will be another bullish signal.

The up signal from Oct 21 is still in play, and the chart remains bullish to start the week.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Nov 13 2020

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Nov 5. On Friday the up signal was stronger.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3600 is resistance

3550 is resistance

3500 is support

3450 is support

3400 is support

3375 is support

3300 is support

3275 is support

3200 is support

3150 is support

3050 is support

3000 is support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Nov 16 2020 

The 35505 level will become support this week, if the SPX stays above it. The next level of resistance is at 3600 which the market could try to break to on Monday.

The technical indicators are gaining strength indicating that the start of the week will be positive for stocks despite the market once again showing signs of being overbought.

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