Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 13 2023 – Morning Weakness Possible But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Fri Nov 10 2023 investors moved back into stocks, shaking off the previous day’s sell-off and the hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell. Indeed even news later in the afternoon that Moody’s had downgraded US credit outlook from stable to negative failed to stall Friday’s rebound.

The SPX closed up 67 points at 4415, wiping out Thursday’s 35 point decline and ending the week up 57 points.

The NASDAQ gained 276 points to close at 13798.11. This wiped out Thursday 128 point decline and added 319 points for the week.

Volumes were slightly lower with the NASDAQ trading 4.8 billion shares while the SPX traded 3.7 billion. The rally remains not as broad as hoped with the SPX still seeing 105 new lows which is more than double the new highs and the NASDAQ seeing 354 new lows, far higher than the 63 new highs on Friday. Still the rally was great to see and solidified last week as one of the best weeks in years for both indexes.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Nov 10 2023 to see what if the rally can continue Mon Nov 13 2023.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Nov 10 2023

The index closed above all major moving averages which is bullish.

The closing candlestick ended the day above 4400 which is bullish.

The 21 day moving average continued to climb away from the 200 day although it remains cautionary. The 50 day moving average ended closer to falling below the 100 day which also is cautionary.

The Lower Bollinger Band is moving lower which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which is also bullish.

The S&P chart is still bearish but there are a number of bullish signs to start off the third week of November.

Stock Market Outlook review FriNov1023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Nov 13 2023 

For Monday Moody’s downgrade might cause a bit of weakness but overall they left the credit rating at AAA and that means most investors will focus on the upcoming Government Shutdown battle which once again could mean a shutdown of some services if not passed this week. Despite this, the morning if it is weak is an opportunity to set up more trades. The day will end higher as the market moves toward 4500 this week. For now most investors are of the opinion the stopgap funding bill will get passed in some form or other. That outlook from investors could change as the week unfolds but for the start of the week, it is still on the “back-burner” for most investors.

There are new resistance levels in the chart above. You can see the SPX index is into resistance and selling at times could be heavy this week. There is also a new support level at 4375 on the SPX.

Overall Monday will end higher as the technical indicators regain their strength. At this point in the rebound rally for Monday, only higher Treasury yields can stall the move higher.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

This week the main economic events that can impact markets are on Tuesday with the Consumer Price Index, Wednesday with the Producer Price Index, Thursday is Home builder confidence index and Friday is Housing starts and building permits.

Monday:

2:00 Monthly US federal budget expect at -$70 billion.