Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Fri May 2 stocks ended the day higher with a close back above the 200 day moving average. This is the first closed above the 200 day moving average since March 25. The SPX added 82 points to close at 5686 on 4.9 billion of shares traded with 80% of all stocks rising. The NASDAQ rose 267 points to end the day at 17,977. Volume was 8.5 billion shares with 71% of stocks rising.
May has a history of weakness and usually if the month starts poorly, it ends even worse. This week should give us some clue as to what direction we can expect stocks to take in May.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Fri May 2 2025 to see what we should expect for Mon May 5 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon May 5 2025
The index closed above the 50 day, 21 day and most important, above the 200 day moving average. This is bullish although a rest of the 200 day is very likely.
The closing candlestick is bullish but the long shadow signals a dip, possibly to retest the 200 day is likely either today of Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5368. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7. It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal. The 21 day is not declining but remained unchanged on Friday.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5562 which is bearish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tue April 15. which issued a 4th down signal on the SPX. The 50 day on Friday fell below the 200 day for a 5th down signal.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5677 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5638 which is bullish.
Two of the moving averages are starting to rise, one is unchanged and only one is falling. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is bearish to neutral. The Upper Bollinger Band is also turning sideways. This could be a signal the market could become range bound for a few days. We will know more Monday after the close.
For Friday the SPX chart is still bearish but with a number of signals advising the next move could be higher for the SPX.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Friday May 2 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Apr 22 2025. On Fri May 2 2025 the up signal was stronger.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic is overbought and has a down signal at the close on Friday.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising indicating a higher day is expected.. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5400 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5300 is support |
| 5230 is support |
| 5000 is support |
| 4770 is support |
| 4680 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4365 is support |
| 4150 is support |
| 4000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon May 5 2025
For Monday the technical indicators are advising that a dip is likely and a retest of the 200 day quite probable either MOnday or Tuesday but the outlook is still up for the index.
The April non-farm payroll numbers were much stronger than anticipated by analysts. The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 4.2% defying analysts call for a rise to at least 4.3%. This contradicts the analysts who are calling for a recession by summer or in the summer.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final services PMI is estimated to dip to 51. from 51.4 prior.
10:00 ISM services are estimated to slip to 50.4% from 50.8% prior