On Friday the S&P slipped lower ending the day at 4181, down 30 points. A lot of the selling on Friday though was profit-taking and quarterly window dressing. A lot of the stocks that fell on Monday are bound to be snapped up this week.
Friday ended the day on a down note, but for the month of April the S&P posted a terrific gain of 5.24%. For the year the index is up 11.2% with almost half of that gain from April.
On Monday we start into May which has a dubious record of starting off the worst 6 months of the year for stocks. This mantra though has not held up many times over the past several years. If earnings continue to grow and the economy expands, we may find that the next 6 months are profitable for stocks.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Apr 30 2021
The Upper Bollinger Band is falling and the Lower Bollinger Band is rising as a new Bollinger Bands Squeeze is in effect to start off the week. At present the outlook for the squeeze is negative but that could easily change.
The closing candlestick on Friday is bearish for Monday.
The 21 day moving average is climbing higher, further away from the 50 day moving average which is bullish.
The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing higher.
Overall the S&P chart is bullish but as explained above there are bearish signals that are warning investors to stay cautious.
Stock Market Outlook – review of Fri Apr 30 2021
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is now negative and falling.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday March 29 2021. On Friday the down signal is strong enough to confirm the next move is lower.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling..
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4225 is resistance
4200 is resistance
4150 is light support
4100 is light support
4070 is very light support
4050 is light support
4000 is Support
3900 is support and the 50 day is just above this at 3933.
3850 is support
3800 is support and the 100 day is just above this level.
3750 is good support
3700 is light support
3680 is light support
3600 is strong support and the 200 day is just above this level.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon May 3 2021
On Monday the index is starting the day above the 4150 support level but below the 4200 resistance level. The technical indicators are all falling and two indicators, MACD and the Slow Stochastic are both signaling down for stocks. Those down signals could however be premature.
Since January when all the technical indicators have pointed in the same direction, stocks have moved in the opposite direction. For Monday, the technical indicators are all pointing lower. If the pattern we have seen since January is to continue, which it should, Monday will see a bounce. How high the bounce will be is difficult to judge but we could see the index push back to at least the 4200 level and then try to move above it. The chance of a positive close on Monday is high. Once Monday’s bounce is over, it will be Tuesday that will give us a better indication what to expect for much of the week.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
