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Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 11 2026 – Overbought – Dips Likely But Higher Close

May 11, 2026 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook overbought but higherPrior Trading Day Summary

On Friday the April Non-Farm Payroll Numbers came in much stronger than estimated which helped the indexes to close at record highs once again.

The S&P rose 61 points to close at 7399. Volume slipped to 5.4 billion with 56% of stocks rising by the close. For the week the S&P added 168 points, the best gain since the second week of April.

The NASDAQ rose 440 points to close at 26,247. Volume was the best for the week at 9.9 billion. 69% of all stocks were advancing by the close. For the week the NASDAQ gained 1132 points, also the best since the second week of April.

With further earnings reports all week and a summit with China on Thursday, the week promises to be volatile.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri May 8 2026 to see what they predict for the start of the week.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri May 8 2026

The index closed above all major moving averages and at the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Monday although it is signaling overbought.

The 21 day moving average is rising sharply and closed at 7137. This is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6863. This is bullish but below the 100 day moving average.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6875. Each day that the 100 day is above the 50 day is a sign of underlying weakness to the uptrend.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6696. This is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher and has moved to the 200 day moving average. This is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish.

The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Monday despite being overbought.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri May 8 2026


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is rising. This is bullish.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Apr 7 2026. On Fri May 8 2026  the up signal gained strength which is bullish.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising which is bullish.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place. It is extremely overbought. It is at levels where a pullback should be expected.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and is at overbought readings.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change is rising and signaling a higher close is likely.

Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.


Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

7400 is resistance
7370 is resistance
7350 is resistance
7280 is resistance
7250 is resistance
7230 is resistance
7200 is resistance
7190 is resistance
7175 is resistance
7150 is resistance
7125 is resistance
7100 is support
7050 is support
7000 is support
6950 is support
6900 is support
6875 is support
6850 is support
6800 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Mon May 11 2026 

For Mon May 11 2026 dips are likely after Friday’s new closing high. Dips though are opportunities to setup trades as the index is still positioned to move higher to start off the week.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 Existing home sales for April are estimated to have risen to 4.1 million from 4.0 million prior

 

 

 

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