Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday May 9 2025 stocks wandered in a tight range between the 100 and 200 day moving averages. They started the day lower and closed slightly negative.
The S&P closed down 4 points to 5660 on 4.7 billion shares traded, a billion less than Thursday. Low volumes on a weak day are normally good for the bulls. For the first week of May the S&P lost 26 points.
The NASDAQ was flat at 17,928 at the close. Volume was the best so far in May with a total of 9.1 billion shares traded. For the first week of May the index lost 49 points.
While the first week of May was rather choppy at times, losses were very small which is good for the bulls.
News this weekend of a trade deal between China and the USA saw futures pop for Monday morning.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Fri May 9 2025 to see what we should expect for Mon May 12 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri May 9 2025
The index closed above the 50 day, 21 day and above the 200 day moving average. Intraday the index stayed in a tight range between the 200 and 100 day moving averages. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish but with a long shadow which signals a choppy day for Monday although early morning futures now show a pop higher for the open today.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5475 which is bullish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7. It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5551 which is bearish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tue April 15 which issued a 4th down signal on the SPX. The 50 day on Friday May 2 fell below the 200 day for a 5th down signal.
The 100 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5674 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5638 which is bearish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.
For Mon May 12 2025 the SPX chart is almost a 50/50 split between bearish and bullish outlook.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri May 9 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling but positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Apr 22 2025. On Fri May 9 2025 the up signal lost some strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and barely positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal at the close.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling as of Friday’s close, indicating a lower day for Monday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5475 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5300 is support |
| 5230 is support |
| 5000 is support |
| 4770 is support |
| 4680 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4365 is support |
| 4150 is support |
| 4000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon May 12 2025
To start the second week of May, the 5450 and 5475 SPX levels have turned back to support.
For Monday the technical indicators are mixed almost evenly between bull and bear with a bit more strength from the technical indicators to the bull side to start the week.
News of a USA-China trade deal is probably more than enough to generate a higher close on Monday. The outlook is for a higher open and a higher close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
2:00 Monthly federal budget for April is estimated at $256 billion, up from $210 billion prior