Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 18 2024 – Bounce Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Friday investors opened the day lower and tried a weak bounce which ran into sellers as the SPX reach 5135 shortly before 11:00 AM. That proved to be the high of the day as the remainder of the day saw stocks continue to slip. At one point around 1:00 PM the SPX reached 5104 and looked like it might break below 5100. When that failed to happen buyers returned and the index closed down 33 points at 5117. Due to triple witching volume was excellent at 8.1 billion shares traded. New lows were unchanged from Thursday’s close which is a good sign for the bulls.

The NASDAQ saw 8.5 billion shares traded with the number of new highs continuing to slip, closing at just 85 new highs. 54% of all volume however was to the upside and 49% of all stocks were climbing. Despite this the index lost 155 points and closed at 15,973.

Friday marked the second week of slight losses for the indexes. March though is usually a strong month for stocks, especially the first two weeks. With those now passed, the question is what will the upcoming week bring for investors?

Let’s review the close on Fri Mar 15 2024 to see what to expect for Mon Mar 18 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Mar 15 2024

The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band and reached the 21 day moving average. This is bearish for the index.

The closing candlestick however is signaling a strong bounce is probable on Monday. It may not have any staying power and could be perhaps just in the morning.

The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5090 on the SPX.

The 50 day moving average is rising and at 4958, which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4600 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band moved back above the 50 day on Thursday which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is flat and tending sideways which is also bearish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Monday but there are more a number of warnings that we could see some further weakness this week.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Mar 15 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 18 2024 

This is a busy week for investors with the FOMC Interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon following by the Fed Chair press conference which often can swing stocks up or down, even if for just a day or two.  On Thursday investors get the service and manufacturing PMI and leading economic indicators. Any of these economic events can impact equities. It could be a choppy week but nothing last week would indicate the Fed has to consider raising rates further. I don’t believe that will happen.

For Monday expect a bounce attempt, probably in the morning, but on low volume and with no real staying power. Watch for a flat to lower close on Monday but Tuesday could see stocks move higher.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Wednesday and Thursday are the busiest days for economic reports that could change market direction.

Monday:

10:00 Home Builder confidence index is expected to be unchanged at 48 which is basically “steady” for housing.