Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Fri Mar 14 2025 stocks finally staged a much-needed oversold bounce. The SPX jumped 117 points with 90% of all volume being traded higher. 82% of all stocks rose. This was the best one day for the SPX since Jan 15 when 84% of all stocks were rising.
The NASDAQ rose 451 points but on the lowest volume of the week at 7.2 billion. 72% of all stocks were rising.
The indexes were extremely oversold and due for a bounce. With the start of the third week of March, we have retails sales, a Fed interest rate announcement, more tariff talk and more quarterly earnings including from Williams-Sonoma Stock (Whm), Signet Jewelers Stock (Big), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Stock (OLLI), Five Below Stock (FIVE), Darden Restaurants Stock (DRI), Accenture PLC Stock (ACN), Nike Stock (NKE), FedEx Stock (FDX), Lennar Corp Stock (LEN), Carnival Corp Stock (CCL) and Micron Technology Stock (MU). It promises to be a week that will most likely again be volatile.
Lets review the SPX technical indicators at the close on Fri Mar 14 2025 to see what to expect on Mon Mar 17 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Mar 14 2025
The index closed at the highest level in 4 days but still below the 200 day moving average. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick has a short shadow which suggests a lower open on Monday is probable.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5870 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7 and on Thursday Mar 13 it fell below the 100 day for a second down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5942 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5876 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5703 which is bearish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which may signal a chance the selling slows to start the week.
For Monday the SPX chart is still strongly bearish and still oversold. A further bounce is possible but not as strong as Friday’s..
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Mar 14 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising, negative and still oversold. A second bounce is likely.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Feb 21 2025. The down signal was weaker on Fri Mar 14 2025. It is at levels signaling the SPX is oversold and should bounce.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place and is still deeply oversold. It is at levels where a second bounce should be anticipated.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and not oversold.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising. A higher close is anticipated. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5730 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5585 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5450 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 17 2025
Technical indicators are still primarily oversold with signals that indicate a chance for a second, but weaker bounce on Monday.
The closing candlestick from Friday points to a lower open on Monday but a positive close is still anticipated.
Monday’s economic report focus is retail sales. If the numbers fail to meet estimates, stocks could open lower and fall to start the day, Monday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Retail sales are expected to rise to 0.6% from -0.9% prior
8:30 Retail sales minus autos are expected to rise to 0.3% from -0.4% prior
8:30 Empire state manufacturing survey is expected to show a decline to -1.8 from a strong 5.7 prior
10:00 Business inventories are expected to rise to 0.3% from -0.2%
10:00 Home builder confidence index is estimated unchanged at 42