Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday the February non-farm payroll numbers was stronger than expected at 275,000 versus 198,000 estimated but surprisingly the prior two months were reduced by 167,000. Wages however rose just 0.1% well below estimates. The initial reaction was higher but then selling took over as stock like NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) and Broadcom Stock (AVGO) fell sharply. Many analysts expressed concern that investors will see stocks like these two example, fall much deeper in any upcoming correction. That added to the selling on Friday until the S&P closed down 33 points and the NASDAQ down 188 points. For the week the S&P was down just 13 points to end the week at 5123. The NASDAQ lost 189 points for the week to close at 16085.
There were some changes in the technical signals on Friday including a further strengthening of the MACD down signal that investors should be aware of.
Let’s review Fri Mar 8 to see what to expect for Mon Mar 11 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Mar 8 2024
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band which is still bullish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Monday and the long tail indicates there could be a bounce attempt again on Monday but a stronger likelihood of a dip lower.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5055 on the SPX.
The 50 day moving average is rising and at 4920, which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4590 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is still undecided but there are signs of a coming dip.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Monday although the closing candlestick and Bollinger Bands Squeeze are both bearish.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Mar 8 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Mar 5. On Fri Mar 8 2024 the down signal gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and turned negative.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak upn signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and signaling a lower close is expected to start the week.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is resistance |
| 5090 is resistance |
| 5075 is resistance |
| 5050 is resistance |
| 5025 is resistance |
| 5010 is resistance |
| 5000 is resistance |
| 4990 is resistance |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
| 4925 is support |
| 4915 is support |
| 4900 is support |
| 4875 is support |
| 4850 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 11 2024
For Monday the technical indicators are signaling weakness and a lower day. They also point to a chance for a bounce but it won’t hold on Monday.
If NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) falls further though we should see buyers return to the stock and that will put a bottom under any further sell-off.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This is a busy week for reports with CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday.
Monday:
No economic reports due out.