Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 10 2025 – Second Bounce Attempt

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Friday the February employment numbers disappointed investors who opened the day selling the SPX to 5719 with heavy sell orders. Buyers returned shortly after the initial selling but couldn’t contain sellers who by 11:50 had the SPX down to 5666. That ended up being the low for the day as comments from Fed Chair Powell during a Q and A session at the University of Chicago monetary policy forum, seemed to sooth of the “issues” investors seem to be focused on at present. This brought buyers back with some seeming to think that the morning drop in equities may have been a bottom for the present sell-off. By the close all three indexes were higher but it remains to be seen if this marked a turning point to the present sellers “angst”.

The SPX closed up 31 points to 5770 but it was a wild day with a range of 117 points. Volume was 5.8 billion with 55% of all stocks rising.

The NASDAQ closed up 127 points to 18,196 with a full intraday range of 475 points. Volume was 8.3 billion with 70% of the volume advancing into the close.

The question for Monday is whether Friday’s reversal marked a change in sentiment or just some bottom-fishing.

Let’s review the SPX technical indicators from Fri Mar 7 2025 to see what to expect for the start of the second week of March.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Mar 7 2025

The index broke through the 200 day moving average and closed back above it on Friday. This still points to stocks being oversold but a second test of the 200 day moving average is possible.

The closing candlestick has one long shadow which points to Friday being a bounce.

The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5982 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday which is a major down signal.

The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5981 which is bearish.

The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5906 which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5709 which is neutral.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is no longer climbing which is neutral. There is a strong possibility the next move will be lower for the Upper Bollinger Band.

For Monday the SPX chart is bearish and indicates that while stocks bounced on Friday there is a chance they will retest below the 200 day again.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Mar 7 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 10 2025

The February non-farm payroll numbers while below forecasts of 160,000, were good, coming in at 151,000, an increase over January’s 125,000 (revised). As well over the past 12 months it was the sixth best showing.

While Monday has no economic reports, the weeks itself contains the latest Consumer Price Index on Wednesday followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Both of these events could and probably will have some effect on market action.

On Friday the 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day issuing a down signal. The closing candlestick on Friday indicated that the day was a bounce but there was no technical indication the down direction was about to change.

On Monday the SPX appears poised to dip to start the day but then may try for a second bounce. If the bounce is stronger and pushes higher than Friday’s close, we could see Tuesday try to continue the advance.

The technical indicators are split for Monday between bull and bear but still show stocks as deeply oversold which provides a chance for a second bounce attempt.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

There are no economic reports