Friday saw an impressive gain by all 3 indexes with the S&P up 116 points to close at 3911. This marked a 3% gain.
The NASDAQ rose 375 points to close at 11607. This was a 3.3% gain.
The move higher on Friday was steady from the open with no big dips. The final 20 minutes saw volumes jump and the S&P rose 16 points to close over the 3900 level.
Let’s review Friday’s impressive gains to see what the closing technical indicators can tell us to expect on Monday for the start of the final week of June.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Jun 24 2022
On Friday the closing candlestick is bullish for only the second time in over 3 weeks. The candlestick though, does show buying was steady but it was overdone at the close which means weakness could be a possibility in the morning.
The Upper Bollinger Band is no longer climbing. The 200 day is still falling but note how the 100 and 50 day moving average averages are turning sideways while the 21 day is ready to turn higher.
The Lower Bollinger Band is still falling which is bearish.
The chart looks stronger than it did on Thursday’s close.
There are 4 down signals still in place and there have been no up signals since the start of April. It would be good to see the Bollinger Bands turn higher.
The chart is 70% bearish for Monday with an indication that the S&P will close above 3900 again.
Stock Market Outlook review of June 24 2022
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative. It is no longer oversold.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Monday June 13. On Friday the down signal was almost gone. The MACD histogram is also ready to turn positive.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising toward overbought.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic is rising.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising toward overbought.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising but still negative.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4200 is light resistance
4150 is light resistance
4100 is light resistance
4050 is light resistance
4025 is light resistance
4000 is strong resistance
3975 is light resistance and is a decline of 17.5%
3900 is light resistance and is a decline of 19%
3850 is light resistance and is a decline of 20%
3825 is light support
3800 is good support.
3775 is light support
3750 is light support
3730 is light support
3700 is good support
3675 is light support
3650 is light support
3625 is light support
3600 is good support and is a decline of 25%
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Mon Jun 27 2022
For Monday the technical indicators have improved, especially after Friday’s large move higher. The buying was overdone late in the day on Friday which means investors should expect dips back below 3900 in the morning. However those dips are once again opportunities to setup trades as the index will close higher, even slightly, on Monday.
Potential Market Moving Events
For the final week of June the biggest events are on Thursday when inflation reports are released. Any indication of even a slight slowing of inflation will see stocks rise. Any rise in inflation will send stocks lower.
Monday:
10:00 Pending home sales index
Tuesday:
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index (year-over-year)
10:00 Consumer Confidence Index
Wednesday:
8:30 Gross domestic product revision
9:00 Fed Chair Powell speaks at ECB Conference
Thursday:
8:30 PCE Inflation (monthly)
8:30 Core PCE Inflation (monthly)
8:30 PCE Inflation year-over-year
8:30 Core PCE Inflation year-over-year
8:30 Real disposable income
8:30 Real consumer spending
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
9:45 Chicago PMI
Friday:
10:00 ISM manufacturing index
10:00 Construction Spending
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
